PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

FC St. Pauli 0–2 Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga

0–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Borussia Dortmund won 0–2.

Shots
714
Shots on target
13
Expected goals
0.411.66
Possession
43%57%

Full time

What the match recorded

Borussia Dortmund beat FC St. Pauli 2–0. Recorded in this match (FC St. Pauli – Borussia Dortmund): shots 7–14, shots on target 1–3, expected goals 0.41–1.66, possession 43%–57%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC St. Pauli's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC St. Pauli's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.75 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match0.75 goals/match1.54 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FC St. Pauli show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

FC St. Pauli's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.9 shots/match ▲ShotsFC St. Pauli · Borussia Dortmund13.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFC St. PauliBorussia DortmundBaseline
Shots10.9 shots/match13.7 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against11.2 shots/match10.5 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Borussia Dortmund have recorded the higher season possession share.

44%PossessionFC St. Pauli · Borussia Dortmund● 60.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 16.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricFC St. PauliBorussia DortmundBaseline
Possession44%60.8%49.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots7 shots14 shotsFC St. Pauli 7 shots, Borussia Dortmund 14 shots
  • Shots on target1 shot3 shotsFC St. Pauli 1 shot, Borussia Dortmund 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.41 xG1.66 xGFC St. Pauli 0.41 xG, Borussia Dortmund 1.66 xG
  • Possession43%57%FC St. Pauli 43%, Borussia Dortmund 57%
  • Corners7 corners1 cornerFC St. Pauli 7 corners, Borussia Dortmund 1 corner
  • Fouls11 fouls13 foulsFC St. Pauli 11 fouls, Borussia Dortmund 13 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Manolis Saliakas · FC St. Pauli · 87′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Beier · Borussia Dortmund · 15′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKarim Adeyemi · Borussia Dortmund · 24′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMaximilian Beier · Borussia Dortmund · 36′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYan Couto · Borussia Dortmund · 53′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCarney Chukwuemeka · Borussia Dortmund · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMarcel Sabitzer · Borussia Dortmund · 36′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedOladapo Afolayan · FC St. Pauli · 63′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKarim Adeyemi · Borussia Dortmund · 9′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJackson Irvine · FC St. Pauli · 14′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKarim Adeyemi · Borussia Dortmund · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDanel Sinani · FC St. Pauli · 86′ · 0.05 xG · on targetHauke Wahl · FC St. Pauli · 34′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedKarim Adeyemi · Borussia Dortmund · 50′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedManolis Saliakas · FC St. Pauli · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedElias Saad · FC St. Pauli · 7′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Beier · Borussia Dortmund · 11′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedKarim Adeyemi · Borussia Dortmund · 72′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedSerhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 50′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedKarim Adeyemi · Borussia Dortmund · 58′ · 0.32 xG · goalSerhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 50′ · 0.39 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FC St. Pauli: 7 shots, 1 on target, 0.42 xG. Borussia Dortmund: 14 shots, 3 on target, 1.72 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Serhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 50′Karim Adeyemi · Borussia Dortmund · 58′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC St. Pauli 0.42 xG · Borussia Dortmund 1.72 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0FC St. Pauli
0Draws
1Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund — FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga2–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC St. Pauli favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Borussia Dortmund in 8 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC St. Pauli24 matchesBorussia Dortmund24 matches
0.75 goals/matchGoals scored24/24▲ 1.88 goals/match
1.21 goals/match ▲Goals allowed24/241.58 goals/match
0.98 xG/matchExpected goals24/24▲ 1.69 xG/match
10.9 shots/matchShots24/24▲ 13.7 shots/match
2.92 shots/matchShots on target24/24▲ 4.42 shots/match
44%Possession24/24● 60.8%
3.92 corners/matchCorners24/24● 5.42 corners/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls24/249.92 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples24 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 1 Mar 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC St. PauliBorussia Dortmund
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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