PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

Holstein Kiel 0–2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga

0–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Bayer 04 Leverkusen won 0–2.

Shots
418
Shots on target
38
Expected goals
0.311.9
Possession
38%62%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bayer 04 Leverkusen beat Holstein Kiel 2–0. Recorded in this match (Holstein Kiel – Bayer 04 Leverkusen): shots 4–18, shots on target 3–8, expected goals 0.31–1.9, possession 38%–62%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bayer 04 Leverkusen's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.22 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match2.22 goals/match1.52 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Bayer 04 Leverkusen's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHolstein Kiel · Bayer 04 Leverkusen15.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricHolstein KielBayer 04 LeverkusenBaseline
Shots10.3 shots/match15.8 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against17.3 shots/match9.7 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Bayer 04 Leverkusen have recorded the higher season possession share.

42.4%PossessionHolstein Kiel · Bayer 04 Leverkusen● 58.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 16.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricHolstein KielBayer 04 LeverkusenBaseline
Possession42.4%58.6%49.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots4 shots18 shotsHolstein Kiel 4 shots, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 18 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots8 shotsHolstein Kiel 3 shots, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 8 shots
  • Expected goals0.31 xG1.9 xGHolstein Kiel 0.31 xG, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.9 xG
  • Possession38%62%Holstein Kiel 38%, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 62%
  • Corners5 corners11 cornersHolstein Kiel 5 corners, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 11 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls10 foulsHolstein Kiel 11 fouls, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Magnus Knudsen · Holstein Kiel · 45′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJonathan Tah · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 62′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMax Geschwill · Holstein Kiel · 90′ · 0.02 xG · on targetArmin Gigović · Holstein Kiel · 49′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEdmond Tapsoba · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 53′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAlejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 82′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPatrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 6′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJeremie Frimpong · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 29′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRobert Andrich · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 36′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEdmond Tapsoba · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 52′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Tah · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 4′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPatrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 6′ · 0.05 xG · on targetPatrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 60′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAmine Adli · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 25′ · 0.06 xG · on targetVictor Okoh Boniface · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 84′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedPatrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 37′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 76′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedPiero Hincapié · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 30′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedMagnus Knudsen · Holstein Kiel · 22′ · 0.24 xG · on targetAmine Adli · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 45′ · 0.30 xG · goalPatrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 9′ · 0.33 xG · goalFlorian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 84′ · 0.39 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Holstein Kiel: 4 shots, 3 on target, 0.31 xG. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 18 shots, 8 on target, 1.87 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Patrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 9′Amine Adli · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 45′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Holstein Kiel 0.31 xG · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.87 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Holstein Kiel
1Draws
0Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — Holstein Kiel · Bundesliga2–2

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Holstein Kiel favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Bayer 04 Leverkusen in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Holstein Kiel23 matchesBayer 04 Leverkusen23 matches
1.48 goals/matchGoals scored23/23▲ 2.22 goals/match
2.57 goals/matchGoals allowed23/23▲ 1.17 goals/match
1.14 xG/matchExpected goals23/23▲ 1.92 xG/match
10.3 shots/matchShots23/23▲ 15.8 shots/match
4.22 shots/matchShots on target23/23▲ 6.04 shots/match
42.4%Possession23/23● 58.6%
3.57 corners/matchCorners23/23● 6.83 corners/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls23/239.04 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 22 Feb 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsHolstein KielBayer 04 Leverkusen
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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