Bundesliga · 2024Sat, 19 Apr 2025, 13:30 UTCFull timeHistorical match

1. FSV Mainz 05

WDLDL

2–2Historical match

VfL Wolfsburg

DLLLL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	1. FSV Mainz 05	VfL Wolfsburg
Shots	18 shots/match▲	16 shots/match
Shots on target	7 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Expected goals	2.75 xG/match▲	1.83 xG/match
Possession	52%●	48%
Corners	7 corners/match●	5 corners/match
Fouls	15 fouls/match	8 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

1. FSV Mainz 05: 18 shots, 7 on target, 2.80 xG. VfL Wolfsburg: 16 shots, 4 on target, 1.83 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FSV Mainz 05 2.80 xG · VfL Wolfsburg 1.83 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: VfL Wolfsburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

VfL Wolfsburg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

VfL Wolfsburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.77 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.8 goals/match	1.77 goals/match	1.59 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

11. FSV Mainz 05

1Draws

3VfL Wolfsburg

8 Dec 2024VfL Wolfsburg — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga4–3

18 May 2024VfL Wolfsburg — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga1–3

13 Jan 20241. FSV Mainz 05 — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga1–1

30 Apr 2023VfL Wolfsburg — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga3–0

5 Nov 20221. FSV Mainz 05 — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga0–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

1. FSV Mainz 05 favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · VfL Wolfsburg in 3 · 8 too close

1.6 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 30/30▲1.77 goals/match

1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 30/301.57 goals/match

1.47 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 30/301.49 xG/match

1.5 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 30/301.56 xG/match

12 shots/matchShotsseason · 30/30▲12.8 shots/match

14.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 30/3013.6 shots/match

4.33 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 30/304.3 shots/match

4.63 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 30/304.73 shots/match

50.1%●Possessionseason · 30/3046%

4.63 corners/matchCornersseason · 30/30●4.73 corners/match

5.3 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 30/305.3 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 30/3010.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

30%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 30/3017%

77%Scoring frequencyseason · 30/30▲83%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

1. FSV Mainz 0569.4

VfL Wolfsburg36.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

1. FSV Mainz 0543.5

VfL Wolfsburg57.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

1. FSV Mainz 0555.5

VfL Wolfsburg38.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

1. FSV Mainz 0513.9

VfL Wolfsburg80.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

1. FSV Mainz 0586.1

VfL Wolfsburg52.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

1. FSV Mainz 0541.7

VfL Wolfsburg63.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

1. FSV Mainz 0550

VfL Wolfsburg54.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

1. FSV Mainz 0530 matchesVfL Wolfsburg30 matches

1.6 goals/matchGoals scored30/30▲1.77 goals/match

1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed30/301.57 goals/match

1.47 xG/matchExpected goals30/301.49 xG/match

12 shots/matchShots30/30▲12.8 shots/match

4.33 shots/matchShots on target30/304.3 shots/match

50.1%●Possession30/3046%

4.63 corners/matchCorners30/30●4.73 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12 fouls/matchFouls30/3010.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

1. FSV Mainz 0515 matchesVfL Wolfsburg15 matches

1.4 goals/matchGoals scored15/15▲1.87 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/151.33 goals/match

1.52 xG/match▲Expected goals15/151.36 xG/match

13.1 shots/match▲Shots15/1511.8 shots/match

4.87 shots/match▲Shots on target15/153.87 shots/match

51.9%●Possession15/1542.1%

5.6 corners/match●Corners15/154.27 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.3 fouls/matchFouls15/1511.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.79 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples30 / 30home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 19 Apr 2025, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

Shot map

Expected-goals timeline

What the record shows

VfL Wolfsburg's recent record differs from the season

Head-to-head

Team comparison

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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