PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

FC Bayern München 3–0 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga

3–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC Bayern München won 3–0.

Shots
148
Shots on target
63
Expected goals
1.140.75
Possession
59%41%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC Bayern München beat 1. FSV Mainz 05 3–0. Recorded in this match (FC Bayern München – 1. FSV Mainz 05): shots 14–8, shots on target 6–3, expected goals 1.14–0.75, possession 59%–41%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FSV Mainz 05's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.55 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.55 goals/match1.55 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1. FSV Mainz 05 show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

1. FSV Mainz 05's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

18.8 shots/match ▲ShotsFC Bayern München · 1. FSV Mainz 0511.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFC Bayern München1. FSV Mainz 05Baseline
Shots18.8 shots/match11.8 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against6.35 shots/match14.1 shots/match13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

FC Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

68.8% ●PossessionFC Bayern München · 1. FSV Mainz 0549.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 19.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricFC Bayern München1. FSV Mainz 05Baseline
Possession68.8%49.8%49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots8 shotsFC Bayern München 14 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 8 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots3 shotsFC Bayern München 6 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.14 xG0.75 xGFC Bayern München 1.14 xG, 1. FSV Mainz 05 0.75 xG
  • Possession59%41%FC Bayern München 59%, 1. FSV Mainz 05 41%
  • Corners4 corners4 cornersFC Bayern München 4 corners, 1. FSV Mainz 05 4 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls17 foulsFC Bayern München 13 fouls, 1. FSV Mainz 05 17 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Nadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 17′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedArmindo Sieb · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 11′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 21′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDanny da Costa · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 57′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 40′ · 0.04 xG · goalNikolas Veratschnig · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 53′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKonrad Laimer · FC Bayern München · 90′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJonah Kusi-Asare · FC Bayern München · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPaul Nebel · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 52′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 59′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 62′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJosip Stanišić · FC Bayern München · 13′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 80′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedNadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 56′ · 0.08 xG · on targetLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 27′ · 0.09 xG · goalHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 32′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedSerge Gnabry · FC Bayern München · 45′ · 0.11 xG · on targetEric Dier · FC Bayern München · 84′ · 0.14 xG · goalJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 6′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 62′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedNelson Weiper · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 90′ · 0.23 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FC Bayern München: 14 shots, 6 on target, 1.10 xG. 1. FSV Mainz 05: 8 shots, 3 on target, 0.66 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Leroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 27′Michael Olise · FC Bayern München · 40′Eric Dier · FC Bayern München · 84′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC Bayern München 1.10 xG · 1. FSV Mainz 05 0.66 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3FC Bayern München
0Draws
21. FSV Mainz 05
1. FSV Mainz 05 — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga2–1
FC Bayern München — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga8–1
1. FSV Mainz 05 — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga1–3
1. FSV Mainz 05 — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga3–1
FC Bayern München — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga6–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC Bayern München favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FSV Mainz 05 in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC Bayern München31 matches1. FSV Mainz 0531 matches
2.9 goals/match ▲Goals scored31/311.55 goals/match
0.94 goals/match ▲Goals allowed31/311.26 goals/match
2.44 xG/match ▲Expected goals31/311.45 xG/match
18.8 shots/match ▲Shots31/3111.8 shots/match
7.97 shots/match ▲Shots on target31/314.29 shots/match
68.8% ●Possession31/3149.8%
6.61 corners/match ●Corners31/314.61 corners/match
8.9 fouls/matchFouls31/3112.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples31 / 31home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 26 Apr 2025, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC Bayern München1. FSV Mainz 05
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
Head-to-headFC Bayern München — 1. FSV Mainz 05
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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