PitchMath
Premier League · 2023Sat, 7 Oct 2023, 11:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
0–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLuton TownTottenham Hotspur
Shots12 shots/match15 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Expected goals0.76 xG/match1.96 xG/match▲
Possession33%67%●
Corners5 corners/match6 corners/match●
Fouls16 fouls/match7 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Micky van de Ven · Tottenham Hotspur · 16′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCarlton Morris · Luton Town · 25′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJacob Brown · Luton Town · 26′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlfie Doughty · Luton Town · 73′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTeden Mengi · Luton Town · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSon Heung-min · Tottenham Hotspur · 6′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRicharlison · Tottenham Hotspur · 19′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPedro Porro · Tottenham Hotspur · 62′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedChiedozie Ogbene · Luton Town · 73′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMarvelous Nakamba · Luton Town · 21′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDejan Kulusevski · Tottenham Hotspur · 30′ · 0.04 xG · on targetPierre-Emile Højbjerg · Tottenham Hotspur · 51′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRicharlison · Tottenham Hotspur · 30′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJames Maddison · Tottenham Hotspur · 33′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSon Heung-min · Tottenham Hotspur · 17′ · 0.07 xG · on targetAlfie Doughty · Luton Town · 56′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedChiedozie Ogbene · Luton Town · 65′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedCarlton Morris · Luton Town · 60′ · 0.08 xG · on targetCarlton Morris · Luton Town · 81′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedSon Heung-min · Tottenham Hotspur · 10′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedJacob Brown · Luton Town · 64′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedCauley Woodrow · Luton Town · 67′ · 0.14 xG · on targetJames Maddison · Tottenham Hotspur · 45′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedMicky van de Ven · Tottenham Hotspur · 52′ · 0.20 xG · goalRicharlison · Tottenham Hotspur · 4′ · 0.25 xG · on targetPedro Porro · Tottenham Hotspur · 7′ · 0.31 xG · off target or blockedRicharlison · Tottenham Hotspur · 3′ · 0.51 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Luton Town: 12 shots, 2 on target, 0.75 xG. Tottenham Hotspur: 15 shots, 4 on target, 1.91 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Micky van de Ven · Tottenham Hotspur · 52′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Luton Town 0.75 xG · Tottenham Hotspur 1.91 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Luton Town's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Luton Town. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Luton Town have a visible home split

weak

Luton Town's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.5 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.5 shots/match12.8 shots/match14 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Luton Town.

3.71 days▲Rest daysLuton Town · Tottenham Hotspur6.79 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricLuton TownTottenham HotspurBaseline
Rest days3.71 days6.79 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Tottenham Hotspur show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Tottenham Hotspur's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.8 shots/match▲ShotsLuton Town · Tottenham Hotspur19.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLuton TownTottenham HotspurBaseline
Shots12.8 shots/match19.1 shots/match14 shots/match
Shots against15.4 shots/match13 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Luton Town favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Tottenham Hotspur in 10 · 2 too close

0.75 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 8/8▲2.25 goals/match
1.88 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 8/8▲1 goals/match
1.21 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 8/8▲1.89 xG/match
1.85 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 8/8▲1.39 xG/match
12.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 8/8▲19.1 shots/match
15.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 8/8▲13 shots/match
2.25 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 8/8▲7 shots/match
5.13 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 8/8▲4.5 shots/match
36.6%Possessionseason · 8/8●61.5%
6.25 corners/matchCornersseason · 8/8●6.63 corners/match
5 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 8/85.63 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
12.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/811.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/8▲38%
63%Scoring frequencyseason · 8/8▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Luton Town2.5
Tottenham Hotspur77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Luton Town16.7
Tottenham Hotspur85
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Luton Town27.5
Tottenham Hotspur63.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Luton Town92.5
Tottenham Hotspur77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Luton Town77.5
Tottenham Hotspur62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Luton Town72.5
Tottenham Hotspur82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Luton Town47.5
Tottenham Hotspur81.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Luton Town8 matchesTottenham Hotspur8 matches
0.75 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲2.25 goals/match
1.88 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲1 goals/match
1.21 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲1.89 xG/match
12.8 shots/matchShots8/8▲19.1 shots/match
2.25 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲7 shots/match
36.6%Possession8/8●61.5%
6.25 corners/matchCorners8/8●6.63 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.3 fouls/matchFouls8/811.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Luton Town4 matchesTottenham Hotspur5 matches
0.75 goals/matchGoals scored4/5▲2.4 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed4/5▲1.2 goals/match
1.44 xG/matchExpected goals4/5▲1.81 xG/match
16.5 shots/matchShots4/516.8 shots/match
2.5 shots/matchShots on target4/5▲6.4 shots/match
44.3%Possession4/5●60.2%
7.75 corners/match●Corners4/54.4 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.5 fouls/matchFouls4/511.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.71 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.79 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 7 Oct 2023, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLuton TownTottenham Hotspur
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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