PitchMath
Premier League · 2023Sat, 16 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
2–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricManchester CityCrystal Palace
Shots19 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Shots on target9 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Expected goals1.61 xG/match1.82 xG/match▲
Possession74%●26%
Corners6 corners/match●1 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match9 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Rúben Dias · Manchester City · 10′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNathan Aké · Manchester City · 23′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNathan Aké · Manchester City · 33′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPhil Foden · Manchester City · 41′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBernardo Silva · Manchester City · 63′ · 0.02 xG · on targetRico Lewis · Manchester City · 36′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJoško Gvardiol · Manchester City · 36′ · 0.03 xG · on targetKyle Walker · Manchester City · 37′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNathan Aké · Manchester City · 67′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBernardo Silva · Manchester City · 87′ · 0.03 xG · on targetRodri · Manchester City · 6′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJeffrey Schlupp · Crystal Palace · 21′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNaouirou Ahamada · Crystal Palace · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRodri · Manchester City · 11′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · Crystal Palace · 44′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJoško Gvardiol · Manchester City · 58′ · 0.05 xG · on targetRúben Dias · Manchester City · 6′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJulián Alvarez · Manchester City · 5′ · 0.11 xG · on targetRodri · Manchester City · 16′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedJoško Gvardiol · Manchester City · 29′ · 0.18 xG · on targetRico Lewis · Manchester City · 54′ · 0.28 xG · goalJack Grealish · Manchester City · 24′ · 0.41 xG · goalMichael Olise · Crystal Palace · 90′ · 0.82 xG · goalJean-Philippe Mateta · Crystal Palace · 76′ · 0.87 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Manchester City: 19 shots, 9 on target, 1.63 xG. Crystal Palace: 5 shots, 2 on target, 1.82 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Jack Grealish · Manchester City · 24′Rico Lewis · Manchester City · 54′Jean-Philippe Mateta · Crystal Palace · 76′Michael Olise · Crystal Palace · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Manchester City 1.63 xG · Crystal Palace 1.82 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Crystal Palace's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Manchester City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Manchester City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.35 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match2.35 goals/match1.48 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Crystal Palace show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Crystal Palace's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

15.9 shots/match▲ShotsManchester City · Crystal Palace11.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricManchester CityCrystal PalaceBaseline
Shots15.9 shots/match11.7 shots/match13.9 shots/match
Shots against8.06 shots/match12.5 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Manchester City have recorded the higher season possession share.

62.3%●PossessionManchester City · Crystal Palace43.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 19.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricManchester CityCrystal PalaceBaseline
Possession62.3%43.2%49.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Manchester City
1Draws
1Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace — Manchester City · Premier League0–1
Manchester City — Crystal Palace · Premier League4–2
Crystal Palace — Manchester City · Premier League0–0
Manchester City — Crystal Palace · Premier League0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Manchester City favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Crystal Palace in 1 · 2 too close

2.35 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 17/171 goals/match
1.18 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 17/171.47 goals/match
1.92 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 17/171.26 xG/match
0.99 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 17/171.4 xG/match
15.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 17/1711.7 shots/match
8.06 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 17/1712.5 shots/match
6.71 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 17/174 shots/match
3 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 17/173.88 shots/match
62.3%●Possessionseason · 17/1743.2%
6.35 corners/match●Cornersseason · 17/174.41 corners/match
3.94 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 17/175.53 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
9.47 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 17/1711.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
24%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/17▲29%
88%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 17/1771%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester City92.5
Crystal Palace32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester City94.2
Crystal Palace26.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester City91.7
Crystal Palace65
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester City37.5
Crystal Palace52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester City7.5
Crystal Palace52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester City82.5
Crystal Palace17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester City68.8
Crystal Palace33.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Manchester City17 matchesCrystal Palace17 matches
2.35 goals/match▲Goals scored17/171 goals/match
1.18 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/171.47 goals/match
1.92 xG/match▲Expected goals17/171.26 xG/match
15.9 shots/match▲Shots17/1711.7 shots/match
6.71 shots/match▲Shots on target17/174 shots/match
62.3%●Possession17/1743.2%
6.35 corners/match●Corners17/174.41 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9.47 fouls/matchFouls17/1711.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Manchester City8 matchesCrystal Palace9 matches
2.75 goals/match▲Goals scored8/91.11 goals/match
1.13 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/91.44 goals/match
1.61 xG/match▲Expected goals8/91.3 xG/match
13.9 shots/match▲Shots8/911.6 shots/match
5.63 shots/match▲Shots on target8/94 shots/match
61.6%●Possession8/940.9%
6.5 corners/match●Corners8/93.89 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.3 fouls/matchFouls8/910.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.1 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 16 Dec 2023, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsManchester CityCrystal Palace
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this
Manchester City vs Crystal Palace — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath