Premier League · 2023Thu, 21 Dec 2023, 20:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Crystal Palace

LDLLD

1–1Full-time recap

Brighton & Hove Albion

WLWDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Crystal Palace	Brighton & Hove Albion
Shots	11 shots/match	18 shots/match▲
Shots on target	3 shots/match	6 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.35 xG/match▲	1.19 xG/match
Possession	34%	66%●
Corners	3 corners/match●	1 corners/match
Fouls	12 fouls/match	11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Crystal Palace: 11 shots, 3 on target, 1.34 xG. Brighton & Hove Albion: 18 shots, 6 on target, 1.19 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Crystal Palace 1.34 xG · Brighton & Hove Albion 1.19 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Brighton & Hove Albion's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Brighton & Hove Albion's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Brighton & Hove Albion's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Brighton & Hove Albion's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.89 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.2 goals/match	1.89 goals/match	1.47 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Brighton & Hove Albion have a visible away split

moderate

Brighton & Hove Albion's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.2 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season15.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	11.2 shots/match	15.1 shots/match	13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Brighton & Hove Albion have recorded the higher season possession share.

42.7%PossessionCrystal Palace · Brighton & Hove Albion●61.9%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 19.2 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Crystal Palace	Brighton & Hove Albion	Baseline
Possession	42.7%	61.9%	49.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Crystal Palace

3Draws

1Brighton & Hove Albion

15 Mar 2023Brighton & Hove Albion — Crystal Palace · Premier League1–0

11 Feb 2023Crystal Palace — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League1–1

14 Jan 2022Brighton & Hove Albion — Crystal Palace · Premier League1–1

27 Sept 2021Crystal Palace — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Crystal Palace favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Brighton & Hove Albion in 6 · 3 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 18/18▲1.89 goals/match

1.44 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 18/181.72 goals/match

1.27 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 18/18▲1.65 xG/match

1.39 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 18/181.51 xG/match

11.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 18/18▲15.1 shots/match

12.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 18/1812.3 shots/match

3.94 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 18/18▲6.17 shots/match

4 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 18/184.5 shots/match

42.7%Possessionseason · 18/18●61.9%

4.33 corners/matchCornersseason · 18/18●5.28 corners/match

5.28 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 18/18▲4 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1810.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

28%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/180%

72%Scoring frequencyseason · 18/18▲94%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Crystal Palace32.5

Brighton & Hove Albion92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Crystal Palace26.7

Brighton & Hove Albion77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Crystal Palace62.5

Brighton & Hove Albion54.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Crystal Palace52.5

Brighton & Hove Albion27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Crystal Palace52.5

Brighton & Hove Albion32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Crystal Palace17.5

Brighton & Hove Albion57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Crystal Palace33.8

Brighton & Hove Albion63.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Crystal Palace18 matchesBrighton & Hove Albion18 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored18/18▲1.89 goals/match

1.44 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/181.72 goals/match

1.27 xG/matchExpected goals18/18▲1.65 xG/match

11.7 shots/matchShots18/18▲15.1 shots/match

3.94 shots/matchShots on target18/18▲6.17 shots/match

42.7%Possession18/18●61.9%

4.33 corners/matchCorners18/18●5.28 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.4 fouls/matchFouls18/1810.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Crystal Palace9 matchesBrighton & Hove Albion9 matches

0.89 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲1.78 goals/match

1.44 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/92.11 goals/match

1.23 xG/matchExpected goals9/91.27 xG/match

11.8 shots/matchShots9/911.2 shots/match

3.89 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲5 shots/match

44.6%Possession9/9●59.4%

4.78 corners/match●Corners9/92.89 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.2 fouls/matchFouls9/910.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.21 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.25 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples18 / 18home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Fri, 22 Dec 2023, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4