PitchMath
Premier League · 2023Fri, 22 Dec 2023, 20:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAston VillaSheffield United
Shots12 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Expected goals0.86 xG/match▲0.58 xG/match
Possession78%●22%
Corners9 corners/match●1 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match16 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Lucas Digne · Aston Villa · 3′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Souza · Sheffield United · 82′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMatty Cash · Aston Villa · 89′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedClément Lenglet · Aston Villa · 33′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLeon Bailey · Aston Villa · 75′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOliver Norwood · Sheffield United · 78′ · 0.02 xG · on targetOliver Norwood · Sheffield United · 83′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 11′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDouglas Luiz · Aston Villa · 32′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedCameron Archer · Sheffield United · 83′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 29′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 80′ · 0.08 xG · on targetMoussa Diaby · Aston Villa · 17′ · 0.10 xG · on targetEzri Konsa · Aston Villa · 22′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedÁlex Moreno · Aston Villa · 89′ · 0.16 xG · on targetNicolò Zaniolo · Aston Villa · 90′ · 0.17 xG · goalCameron Archer · Sheffield United · 87′ · 0.49 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Aston Villa: 12 shots, 4 on target, 0.84 xG. Sheffield United: 5 shots, 2 on target, 0.59 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Nicolò Zaniolo · Aston Villa · 90′Cameron Archer · Sheffield United · 87′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Aston Villa 0.84 xG · Sheffield United 0.59 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Sheffield United's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Sheffield United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Sheffield United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Sheffield United's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.72 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.72 goals/match1.47 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Sheffield United show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Sheffield United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.7 shots/match▲ShotsAston Villa · Sheffield United8.17 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAston VillaSheffield UnitedBaseline
Shots14.7 shots/match8.17 shots/match13.7 shots/match
Shots against9.89 shots/match17.7 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Aston Villa have recorded the higher season possession share.

54.2%●PossessionAston Villa · Sheffield United35.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 18.3 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricAston VillaSheffield UnitedBaseline
Possession54.2%35.9%49.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Aston Villa favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Sheffield United in 0 · 2 too close

2.11 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 18/180.72 goals/match
1.22 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 18/182.44 goals/match
1.77 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 18/180.76 xG/match
1.31 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 18/182.08 xG/match
14.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 18/188.17 shots/match
9.89 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 18/1817.7 shots/match
5.33 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 18/182.56 shots/match
4.11 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 18/187.17 shots/match
54.2%●Possessionseason · 18/1835.9%
6.22 corners/match●Cornersseason · 18/183.22 corners/match
4.17 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 18/187.17 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1812.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
22%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/186%
89%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 18/1861%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Aston Villa62.5
Sheffield United7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Aston Villa74.2
Sheffield United2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Aston Villa79.2
Sheffield United2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Aston Villa52.5
Sheffield United12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa37.5
Sheffield United87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa77.5
Sheffield United2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Aston Villa63.8
Sheffield United23.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Aston Villa18 matchesSheffield United18 matches
2.11 goals/match▲Goals scored18/180.72 goals/match
1.22 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/182.44 goals/match
1.77 xG/match▲Expected goals18/180.76 xG/match
14.7 shots/match▲Shots18/188.17 shots/match
5.33 shots/match▲Shots on target18/182.56 shots/match
54.2%●Possession18/1835.9%
6.22 corners/match●Corners18/183.22 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11 fouls/matchFouls18/1812.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Aston Villa9 matchesSheffield United9 matches
2.89 goals/match▲Goals scored9/90.56 goals/match
0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/92.56 goals/match
2.11 xG/match▲Expected goals9/90.58 xG/match
15.1 shots/match▲Shots9/97 shots/match
6 shots/match▲Shots on target9/92.11 shots/match
56.4%●Possession9/935.6%
5.11 corners/match●Corners9/93.11 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.4 fouls/matchFouls9/912.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.25 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.21 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 23 Dec 2023, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAston VillaSheffield United
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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