PitchMath
Premier League · 2023Tue, 26 Dec 2023, 20:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
3–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricManchester UnitedAston Villa
Shots13 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Expected goals1.13 xG/match1.66 xG/match▲
Possession46%54%●
Corners3 corners/match6 corners/match●
Fouls10 fouls/match10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Christian Eriksen · Manchester United · 11′ · 0.02 xG · on targetBruno Fernandes · Manchester United · 57′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLeon Bailey · Aston Villa · 16′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJohn McGinn · Aston Villa · 22′ · 0.03 xG · goalChristian Eriksen · Manchester United · 34′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDouglas Luiz · Aston Villa · 42′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlejandro Garnacho · Manchester United · 63′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Rashford · Manchester United · 35′ · 0.05 xG · on targetJohn McGinn · Aston Villa · 4′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Rashford · Manchester United · 31′ · 0.06 xG · on targetDiogo Dalot · Manchester United · 36′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Rashford · Manchester United · 44′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLeon Bailey · Aston Villa · 60′ · 0.07 xG · on targetEzri Konsa · Aston Villa · 43′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAlejandro Garnacho · Manchester United · 90′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJacob Ramsey · Aston Villa · 60′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedDiego Carlos · Aston Villa · 62′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedRasmus Højlund · Manchester United · 82′ · 0.10 xG · goalBruno Fernandes · Manchester United · 31′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedAlejandro Garnacho · Manchester United · 71′ · 0.16 xG · goalAlejandro Garnacho · Manchester United · 59′ · 0.34 xG · goalJohn McGinn · Aston Villa · 72′ · 0.43 xG · off target or blockedLeander Dendoncker · Aston Villa · 26′ · 0.68 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Manchester United: 13 shots, 7 on target, 1.16 xG. Aston Villa: 10 shots, 3 on target, 1.62 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Alejandro Garnacho · Manchester United · 59′Alejandro Garnacho · Manchester United · 71′Rasmus Højlund · Manchester United · 82′John McGinn · Aston Villa · 22′Leander Dendoncker · Aston Villa · 26′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Manchester United 1.16 xG · Aston Villa 1.62 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Manchester United, Aston Villa. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.11 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match2.11 goals/match1.46 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Manchester United, Aston Villa.

3.31 days▲Rest daysManchester United · Aston Villa4 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricManchester UnitedAston VillaBaseline
Rest days3.31 days4 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.37 corners/match●CornersManchester United · Aston Villa6.21 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricManchester UnitedAston VillaBaseline
Corners6.37 corners/match6.21 corners/match5.17 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Manchester United
1Draws
2Aston Villa
Manchester United — Aston Villa · Premier League1–0
Aston Villa — Manchester United · Premier League3–1
Aston Villa — Manchester United · Premier League2–2
Manchester United — Aston Villa · Premier League0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Manchester United favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 8 · 4 too close

1.11 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 19/19▲2.11 goals/match
1.32 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 19/191.32 goals/match
1.5 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 19/19▲1.77 xG/match
1.7 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 19/19▲1.3 xG/match
14.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 19/1914.4 shots/match
15.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 19/19▲10.1 shots/match
4.47 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 19/19▲5.26 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 19/19▲4.26 shots/match
52.6%Possessionseason · 19/19●54.2%
6.37 corners/match●Cornersseason · 19/196.21 corners/match
6.21 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 19/19▲4.11 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
10.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 19/1910.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
32%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 19/1921%
63%Scoring frequencyseason · 19/19▲89%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester United57.5
Aston Villa62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester United40.8
Aston Villa74.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester United43.3
Aston Villa75.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester United62.5
Aston Villa52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester United22.5
Aston Villa37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester United87.5
Aston Villa77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester United53.8
Aston Villa61.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Manchester United19 matchesAston Villa19 matches
1.11 goals/matchGoals scored19/19▲2.11 goals/match
1.32 goals/matchGoals allowed19/191.32 goals/match
1.5 xG/matchExpected goals19/19▲1.77 xG/match
14.4 shots/matchShots19/1914.4 shots/match
4.47 shots/matchShots on target19/19▲5.26 shots/match
52.6%Possession19/19●54.2%
6.37 corners/match●Corners19/196.21 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.5 fouls/matchFouls19/1910.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Manchester United10 matchesAston Villa10 matches
1.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.4 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.9 goals/match
1.83 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.46 xG/match
17 shots/match▲Shots10/1013.8 shots/match
5.4 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.6 shots/match
56.7%●Possession10/1052.2%
8.7 corners/match●Corners10/107.2 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.31 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 27 Dec 2023, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsManchester UnitedAston Villa
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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Manchester United vs Aston Villa — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath