Premier League · 2023Sat, 30 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Aston Villa

WWWDL

3–2Full-time recap

Burnley

LDLWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Aston Villa	Burnley
Shots	19 shots/match▲	9 shots/match
Shots on target	7 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Expected goals	3.23 xG/match▲	1.17 xG/match
Possession	66%●	34%
Corners	6 corners/match●	2 corners/match
Fouls	9 fouls/match	14 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Aston Villa: 19 shots, 7 on target, 3.33 xG. Burnley: 9 shots, 5 on target, 1.21 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Aston Villa 3.33 xG · Burnley 1.21 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Aston Villa, Burnley. A second useful context is: Burnley's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Aston Villa, Burnley.

3.79 days▲Rest daysAston Villa · Burnley3.9 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Aston Villa	Burnley	Baseline
Rest days	3.79 days	3.9 days	—
Matches last 14 days	3 matches	3 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Burnley show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Burnley's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.7 shots/match▲ShotsAston Villa · Burnley10.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Aston Villa	Burnley	Baseline
Shots	14.7 shots/match	10.5 shots/match	13.5 shots/match
Shots against	10 shots/match	15.1 shots/match	13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Burnley have a visible away split

moderate

Burnley's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.6 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season10.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	8.6 shots/match	10.5 shots/match	13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Aston Villa

1Draws

0Burnley

27 Aug 2023Burnley — Aston Villa · Premier League1–3

19 May 2022Aston Villa — Burnley · Premier League1–1

7 May 2022Burnley — Aston Villa · Premier League1–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Aston Villa favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Burnley in 0 · 2 too close

2.15 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 20/201 goals/match

1.35 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 20/202.05 goals/match

1.84 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 20/200.88 xG/match

1.29 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 20/201.78 xG/match

14.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 20/2010.5 shots/match

10 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 20/2015.1 shots/match

5.35 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 20/203.2 shots/match

4.3 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 20/206.15 shots/match

54.8%●Possessionseason · 20/2047.6%

6.2 corners/match●Cornersseason · 20/205.5 corners/match

4 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 20/205.65 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/2011 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

20%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/2010%

90%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 20/2060%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Aston Villa62.5

Burnley37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Aston Villa77.5

Burnley9.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Aston Villa78.3

Burnley13.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Aston Villa42.5

Burnley2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa32.5

Burnley37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa77.5

Burnley72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Aston Villa62.5

Burnley32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Aston Villa20 matchesBurnley20 matches

2.15 goals/match▲Goals scored20/201 goals/match

1.35 goals/match▲Goals allowed20/202.05 goals/match

1.84 xG/match▲Expected goals20/200.88 xG/match

14.7 shots/match▲Shots20/2010.5 shots/match

5.35 shots/match▲Shots on target20/203.2 shots/match

54.8%●Possession20/2047.6%

6.2 corners/match●Corners20/205.5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.9 fouls/matchFouls20/2011 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Aston Villa10 matchesBurnley10 matches

2.9 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101 goals/match

0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.7 goals/match

2.22 xG/match▲Expected goals10/100.76 xG/match

15.5 shots/match▲Shots10/108.6 shots/match

6.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.1 shots/match

57.4%●Possession10/1043.9%

5.2 corners/match●Corners10/104.3 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.79 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.9 days

3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples20 / 20home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 30 Dec 2023, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4