PitchMath
Premier League · 2023Sat, 16 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Chelsea

DLWLL
2–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricChelseaSheffield United
Shots15 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Expected goals3.05 xG/match▲0.36 xG/match
Possession78%●22%
Corners7 corners/match●5 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match14 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Mykhailo Mudryk · Chelsea · 22′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedConor Gallagher · Chelsea · 15′ · 0.02 xG · on targetCameron Archer · Sheffield United · 24′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMoisés Caicedo · Chelsea · 2′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Jackson · Chelsea · 43′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCole Palmer · Chelsea · 52′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGustavo Hamer · Sheffield United · 70′ · 0.04 xG · on targetConor Gallagher · Chelsea · 79′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAnel Ahmedhodžić · Sheffield United · 24′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJayden Bogle · Sheffield United · 70′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedCole Palmer · Chelsea · 15′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedCole Palmer · Chelsea · 49′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedCameron Archer · Sheffield United · 12′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedCole Palmer · Chelsea · 88′ · 0.09 xG · on targetRaheem Sterling · Chelsea · 68′ · 0.10 xG · on targetCameron Archer · Sheffield United · 90′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedArmando Broja · Chelsea · 90′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Jackson · Chelsea · 88′ · 0.22 xG · on targetCole Palmer · Chelsea · 54′ · 0.46 xG · goalNicolas Jackson · Chelsea · 61′ · 0.87 xG · goalArmando Broja · Chelsea · 84′ · 0.91 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Chelsea: 15 shots, 6 on target, 3.09 xG. Sheffield United: 6 shots, 1 on target, 0.37 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Cole Palmer · Chelsea · 54′Nicolas Jackson · Chelsea · 61′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Chelsea 3.09 xG · Sheffield United 0.37 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Sheffield United's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Sheffield United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Sheffield United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Sheffield United's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.71 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.71 goals/match1.48 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Sheffield United show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Sheffield United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13.6 shots/match▲ShotsChelsea · Sheffield United8.35 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricChelseaSheffield UnitedBaseline
Shots13.6 shots/match8.35 shots/match13.9 shots/match
Shots against12.3 shots/match18 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Chelsea have recorded the higher season possession share.

59.4%●PossessionChelsea · Sheffield United36.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 22.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricChelseaSheffield UnitedBaseline
Possession59.4%36.7%49.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Chelsea favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Sheffield United in 0 · 2 too close

1.65 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 17/170.71 goals/match
1.53 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 17/172.53 goals/match
1.99 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 17/170.77 xG/match
1.44 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 17/172.16 xG/match
13.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 17/178.35 shots/match
12.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 17/1718 shots/match
4.88 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 17/172.59 shots/match
4.71 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 17/177.35 shots/match
59.4%●Possessionseason · 17/1736.7%
5.24 corners/match●Cornersseason · 17/173.35 corners/match
4.88 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 17/177.06 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
12.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 17/1712.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
24%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/176%
71%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 17/1759%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Chelsea72.5
Sheffield United7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Chelsea56.7
Sheffield United2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Chelsea55
Sheffield United2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Chelsea17.5
Sheffield United12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Chelsea87.5
Sheffield United77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Chelsea52.5
Sheffield United2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Chelsea61.9
Sheffield United21.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Chelsea17 matchesSheffield United17 matches
1.65 goals/match▲Goals scored17/170.71 goals/match
1.53 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/172.53 goals/match
1.99 xG/match▲Expected goals17/170.77 xG/match
13.6 shots/match▲Shots17/178.35 shots/match
4.88 shots/match▲Shots on target17/172.59 shots/match
59.4%●Possession17/1736.7%
5.24 corners/match●Corners17/173.35 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.3 fouls/matchFouls17/1712.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Chelsea9 matchesSheffield United8 matches
1.67 goals/match▲Goals scored9/80.5 goals/match
1.44 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/82.75 goals/match
2.08 xG/match▲Expected goals9/80.58 xG/match
14.2 shots/match▲Shots9/87.25 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target9/82.13 shots/match
58.7%●Possession9/837.3%
5.44 corners/match●Corners9/83.38 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.7 fouls/matchFouls9/812.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 16 Dec 2023, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsChelseaSheffield United
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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