Premier League · 2023Sun, 10 Dec 2023, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Everton

DWLWW

2–0Full-time recap

Chelsea

WDLWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Everton	Chelsea
Shots	9 shots/match	16 shots/match▲
Shots on target	5 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Expected goals	1.22 xG/match▲	0.95 xG/match
Possession	28%	72%●
Corners	4 corners/match	8 corners/match●
Fouls	12 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Everton: 9 shots, 5 on target, 1.29 xG. Chelsea: 16 shots, 4 on target, 0.94 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Everton 1.29 xG · Chelsea 0.94 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Everton's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Everton, Chelsea. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Everton's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Everton's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.25 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.8 goals/match	1.25 goals/match	1.53 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Everton, Chelsea.

2.77 days▲Rest daysEverton · Chelsea3.74 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Everton	Chelsea	Baseline
Rest days	2.77 days	3.74 days	—
Matches last 14 days	3 matches	2 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Chelsea have recorded the higher season possession share.

39.6%PossessionEverton · Chelsea●58.2%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 18.6 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Everton	Chelsea	Baseline
Possession	39.6%	58.2%	50.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Everton

2Draws

1Chelsea

18 Mar 2023Chelsea — Everton · Premier League2–2

6 Aug 2022Everton — Chelsea · Premier League0–1

1 May 2022Everton — Chelsea · Premier League1–0

16 Dec 2021Chelsea — Everton · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Everton favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Chelsea in 4 · 4 too close

1.25 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 16/16▲1.63 goals/match

1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 16/161.63 goals/match

1.61 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 16/16▲1.92 xG/match

1.34 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 16/161.5 xG/match

14.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 16/1613.6 shots/match

12.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 16/1612.7 shots/match

4.81 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 16/164.81 shots/match

3.63 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 16/164.94 shots/match

39.6%Possessionseason · 16/16●58.2%

4.69 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/16●5.13 corners/match

5.44 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 16/16▲4.88 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1612.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

31%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/1619%

63%Scoring frequencyseason · 16/16▲69%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Everton12.5

Chelsea72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Everton50

Chelsea55

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Everton75

Chelsea45.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Everton97.5

Chelsea22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Everton85

Chelsea85

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Everton32.5

Chelsea52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Everton58.8

Chelsea61.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Everton16 matchesChelsea16 matches

1.25 goals/matchGoals scored16/16▲1.63 goals/match

1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/161.63 goals/match

1.61 xG/matchExpected goals16/16▲1.92 xG/match

14.6 shots/match▲Shots16/1613.6 shots/match

4.81 shots/matchShots on target16/164.81 shots/match

39.6%Possession16/16●58.2%

4.69 corners/matchCorners16/16●5.13 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.5 fouls/matchFouls16/1612.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Everton9 matchesChelsea8 matches

1.11 goals/matchGoals scored9/8▲1.63 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/81.63 goals/match

1.95 xG/matchExpected goals9/81.88 xG/match

17.1 shots/match▲Shots9/813 shots/match

5.67 shots/match▲Shots on target9/84.75 shots/match

40.8%Possession9/8●60.1%

5.22 corners/match●Corners9/85 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.3 fouls/matchFouls9/814.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.77 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.74 days

3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples16 / 16home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 10 Dec 2023, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4