PitchMath
Premier League · 2023Thu, 7 Dec 2023, 19:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Everton

WDWLW
3–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricEvertonNewcastle United
Shots21 shots/match▲13 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Expected goals3.36 xG/match▲1.57 xG/match
Possession39%61%●
Corners5 corners/match●2 corners/match
Fouls18 fouls/match8 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Fabian Schär · Newcastle United · 69′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJames Tarkowski · Everton · 8′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMiguel Almirón · Newcastle United · 29′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Gordon · Newcastle United · 55′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLewis Miley · Newcastle United · 58′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAshley Young · Everton · 3′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedIdrissa Gana Gueye · Everton · 6′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKieran Trippier · Newcastle United · 14′ · 0.06 xG · on targetAnthony Gordon · Newcastle United · 65′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJack Harrison · Everton · 85′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBruno Guimarães · Newcastle United · 31′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDominic Calvert-Lewin · Everton · 63′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedIdrissa Gana Gueye · Everton · 67′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedIdrissa Gana Gueye · Everton · 3′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAshley Young · Everton · 7′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAbdoulaye Doucouré · Everton · 19′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDominic Calvert-Lewin · Everton · 20′ · 0.08 xG · on targetAbdoulaye Doucouré · Everton · 75′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDwight McNeil · Everton · 79′ · 0.09 xG · goalLewis Miley · Newcastle United · 82′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJack Harrison · Everton · 8′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedDwight McNeil · Everton · 31′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedDominic Calvert-Lewin · Everton · 50′ · 0.15 xG · on targetMiguel Almirón · Newcastle United · 17′ · 0.19 xG · on targetDominic Calvert-Lewin · Everton · 19′ · 0.20 xG · on targetAlexander Isak · Newcastle United · 36′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedJarrad Branthwaite · Everton · 7′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Gordon · Newcastle United · 62′ · 0.23 xG · on targetDominic Calvert-Lewin · Everton · 18′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedAlexander Isak · Newcastle United · 90′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedMiguel Almirón · Newcastle United · 82′ · 0.32 xG · off target or blockedBeto · Everton · 90′ · 0.34 xG · goalAbdoulaye Doucouré · Everton · 86′ · 0.39 xG · goalDominic Calvert-Lewin · Everton · 39′ · 0.84 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Everton: 21 shots, 6 on target, 3.42 xG. Newcastle United: 13 shots, 3 on target, 1.54 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Dwight McNeil · Everton · 79′Abdoulaye Doucouré · Everton · 86′Beto · Everton · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Everton 3.42 xG · Newcastle United 1.54 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Newcastle United's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Everton's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Newcastle United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Newcastle United's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.13 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match2.13 goals/match1.47 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Everton have a visible home split

moderate

Everton's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

18.1 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season14.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots18.1 shots/match14.9 shots/match13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Newcastle United have recorded the higher season possession share.

40.4%PossessionEverton · Newcastle United●54.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricEvertonNewcastle UnitedBaseline
Possession40.4%54.2%50.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Everton
0Draws
3Newcastle United
Everton — Newcastle United · Premier League1–4
Newcastle United — Everton · Premier League1–0
Everton — Newcastle United · Premier League1–0
Newcastle United — Everton · Premier League3–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Everton favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Newcastle United in 7 · 4 too close

1.2 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 15/15▲2.13 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 15/15▲1.13 goals/match
1.64 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 15/15▲2 xG/match
1.37 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 15/15▲1.18 xG/match
14.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 15/1513.7 shots/match
12.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 15/1512.3 shots/match
4.8 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 15/15▲5.53 shots/match
3.6 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 15/153.93 shots/match
40.4%Possessionseason · 15/15●54.2%
4.73 corners/match●Cornersseason · 15/154.33 corners/match
5.27 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 15/155.13 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
12.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 15/1510.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
27%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 15/15▲40%
60%Scoring frequencyseason · 15/15▲80%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Everton12.5
Newcastle United67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Everton52.5
Newcastle United65.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Everton75.8
Newcastle United75.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Everton97.5
Newcastle United42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Everton85
Newcastle United30
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Everton37.5
Newcastle United17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Everton61.9
Newcastle United42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Everton15 matchesNewcastle United15 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored15/15▲2.13 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed15/15▲1.13 goals/match
1.64 xG/matchExpected goals15/15▲2 xG/match
14.9 shots/match▲Shots15/1513.7 shots/match
4.8 shots/matchShots on target15/15▲5.53 shots/match
40.4%Possession15/15●54.2%
4.73 corners/match●Corners15/154.33 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.5 fouls/matchFouls15/1510.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Everton8 matchesNewcastle United7 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored8/7▲1.86 goals/match
1.13 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/71.86 goals/match
2.04 xG/match▲Expected goals8/71.67 xG/match
18.1 shots/match▲Shots8/711.7 shots/match
5.75 shots/match▲Shots on target8/74.86 shots/match
42.4%Possession8/7●54%
5.38 corners/match●Corners8/73.43 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.4 fouls/matchFouls8/711.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.08 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.98 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 7 Dec 2023, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsEvertonNewcastle United
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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