Premier League · 2023Sat, 13 Jan 2024, 17:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Newcastle United

LWLLL

2–3Full-time recap

Manchester City

LWDWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Newcastle United	Manchester City
Shots	12 shots/match	27 shots/match▲
Shots on target	5 shots/match	11 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.3 xG/match	3 xG/match▲
Possession	27%	73%●
Corners	3 corners/match	13 corners/match●
Fouls	7 fouls/match	7 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Newcastle United: 12 shots, 5 on target, 1.30 xG. Manchester City: 27 shots, 11 on target, 3.04 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Newcastle United 1.30 xG · Manchester City 3.04 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester City's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Newcastle United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Manchester City's recent record differs from the season

weak

Manchester City's last-five shots average is above their season average.

21 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season16.9 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	21 shots/match	16.9 shots/match	13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Newcastle United show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Newcastle United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14 shots/match▲ShotsNewcastle United · Manchester City16.9 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Newcastle United	Manchester City	Baseline
Shots	14 shots/match	16.9 shots/match	13.5 shots/match
Shots against	14.5 shots/match	8 shots/match	13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Newcastle United have a visible home split

moderate

Newcastle United's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.5 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season14 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	16.5 shots/match	14 shots/match	13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Newcastle United

1Draws

4Manchester City

19 Aug 2023Manchester City — Newcastle United · Premier League1–0

4 Mar 2023Manchester City — Newcastle United · Premier League2–0

21 Aug 2022Newcastle United — Manchester City · Premier League3–3

8 May 2022Manchester City — Newcastle United · Premier League5–0

19 Dec 2021Newcastle United — Manchester City · Premier League0–4

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Newcastle United favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Manchester City in 9 · 3 too close

1.95 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 21/20▲2.4 goals/match

1.52 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 21/20▲1.15 goals/match

1.95 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 21/202.02 xG/match

1.76 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 21/20▲0.97 xG/match

14 shots/matchShotsseason · 21/20▲16.9 shots/match

14.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 21/20▲8 shots/match

5.38 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 21/19▲7.05 shots/match

5.33 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 21/19▲3.05 shots/match

53.3%Possessionseason · 21/20●64.3%

4.71 corners/matchCornersseason · 21/20●7.05 corners/match

5.19 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 21/20▲3.8 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/208.9 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

33%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/2025%

81%Scoring frequencyseason · 21/20▲90%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Newcastle United62.5

Manchester City97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Newcastle United70.8

Manchester City95.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Newcastle United35.8

Manchester City92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Newcastle United32.5

Manchester City37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Newcastle United17.5

Manchester City2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Newcastle United27.5

Manchester City92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Newcastle United45

Manchester City71.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 99%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Newcastle United21 matchesManchester City20 matches

1.95 goals/matchGoals scored21/20▲2.4 goals/match

1.52 goals/matchGoals allowed21/20▲1.15 goals/match

1.95 xG/matchExpected goals21/202.02 xG/match

14 shots/matchShots21/20▲16.9 shots/match

5.38 shots/matchShots on target21/19▲7.05 shots/match

53.3%Possession21/20●64.3%

4.71 corners/matchCorners21/20●7.05 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.5 fouls/matchFouls21/208.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Newcastle United11 matchesManchester City11 matches

2.27 goals/matchGoals scored11/112.18 goals/match

0.91 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/111.27 goals/match

2.32 xG/matchExpected goals11/112.31 xG/match

16.5 shots/matchShots11/11▲19 shots/match

6.45 shots/matchShots on target11/11▲8.09 shots/match

54.1%Possession11/11●64.6%

5.36 corners/matchCorners11/11●7 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.73 fouls/matchFouls11/118.27 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

11.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114.1 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples21 / 20home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 13 Jan 2024, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4