PitchMath
Premier League · 2023Sat, 13 Jan 2024, 12:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Chelsea

LWLWW
1–0Full-time recap

Fulham

WLLLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricChelseaFulham
Shots17 shots/match▲14 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Expected goals2.19 xG/match▲0.86 xG/match
Possession55%●45%
Corners6 corners/match●4 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match9 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Tosin Adarabioyo · Fulham · 44′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRaheem Sterling · Chelsea · 13′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCole Palmer · Chelsea · 29′ · 0.02 xG · on targetHarry Wilson · Fulham · 44′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMalo Gusto · Chelsea · 53′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRaúl Jiménez · Fulham · 82′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAndreas Pereira · Fulham · 26′ · 0.03 xG · on targetRaheem Sterling · Chelsea · 31′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTom Cairney · Fulham · 37′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEnzo Fernández · Chelsea · 43′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedWillian · Fulham · 54′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRaúl Jiménez · Fulham · 74′ · 0.03 xG · on targetCole Palmer · Chelsea · 51′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedArmando Broja · Chelsea · 21′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedConor Gallagher · Chelsea · 29′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBobby De Cordova-Reid · Fulham · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedConor Gallagher · Chelsea · 83′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedNoni Madueke · Chelsea · 90′ · 0.07 xG · on targetTom Cairney · Fulham · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedConor Gallagher · Chelsea · 15′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAndreas Pereira · Fulham · 76′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedHarry Wilson · Fulham · 27′ · 0.09 xG · on targetRaúl Jiménez · Fulham · 55′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedLevi Colwill · Chelsea · 69′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedAxel Disasi · Chelsea · 79′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedEnzo Fernández · Chelsea · 12′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedRaúl Jiménez · Fulham · 73′ · 0.14 xG · on targetWillian · Fulham · 86′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedArmando Broja · Chelsea · 56′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedRaheem Sterling · Chelsea · 53′ · 0.37 xG · off target or blockedCole Palmer · Chelsea · 45′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Chelsea: 17 shots, 3 on target, 2.24 xG. Fulham: 14 shots, 4 on target, 0.87 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Cole Palmer · Chelsea · 45′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Chelsea 2.24 xG · Fulham 0.87 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Fulham's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Fulham's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Fulham's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fulham's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.33 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match1.33 goals/match1.49 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Fulham have a visible away split

moderate

Fulham's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9 shots/match11.6 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Chelsea have recorded the higher season possession share.

59.3%●PossessionChelsea · Fulham49.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricChelseaFulhamBaseline
Possession59.3%49.9%49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Chelsea
1Draws
1Fulham
Fulham — Chelsea · Premier League0–2
Chelsea — Fulham · Premier League0–0
Fulham — Chelsea · Premier League2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Chelsea favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Fulham in 1 · 4 too close

1.67 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 21/211.33 goals/match
1.48 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 21/211.71 goals/match
2 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 21/211.22 xG/match
1.44 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 21/211.77 xG/match
13.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 21/2111.6 shots/match
12.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 21/2113.2 shots/match
4.9 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 21/214.19 shots/match
4.81 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 21/215.38 shots/match
59.3%●Possessionseason · 21/2149.9%
5.1 corners/match●Cornersseason · 21/214.9 corners/match
5.1 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 21/21▲4.38 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
12.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/219.86 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
24%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/2124%
76%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 21/2157%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Chelsea72.5
Fulham52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Chelsea59.2
Fulham35.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Chelsea55.8
Fulham34.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Chelsea7.5
Fulham12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Chelsea82.5
Fulham12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Chelsea47.5
Fulham42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Chelsea61.2
Fulham31.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Chelsea21 matchesFulham21 matches
1.67 goals/match▲Goals scored21/211.33 goals/match
1.48 goals/match▲Goals allowed21/211.71 goals/match
2 xG/match▲Expected goals21/211.22 xG/match
13.6 shots/match▲Shots21/2111.6 shots/match
4.9 shots/match▲Shots on target21/214.19 shots/match
59.3%●Possession21/2149.9%
5.1 corners/match●Corners21/214.9 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.6 fouls/matchFouls21/219.86 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Chelsea11 matchesFulham11 matches
1.64 goals/match▲Goals scored11/110.82 goals/match
1.27 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/112.18 goals/match
2.14 xG/match▲Expected goals11/110.85 xG/match
14 shots/match▲Shots11/119 shots/match
4.73 shots/match▲Shots on target11/113.91 shots/match
58.8%●Possession11/1141.9%
5.36 corners/match●Corners11/113.45 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.1 fouls/matchFouls11/1110.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/112.9 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 13 Jan 2024, 16:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsChelseaFulham
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this
Chelsea vs Fulham — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath