Premier League · 2023Sun, 31 Dec 2023, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Fulham

WWLLL

2–1Full-time recap

Arsenal

WLWDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Fulham	Arsenal
Shots	15 shots/match▲	13 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	1.22 xG/match	1.64 xG/match▲
Possession	40%	60%●
Corners	5 corners/match●	4 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Fulham: 15 shots, 4 on target, 1.21 xG. Arsenal: 13 shots, 3 on target, 1.70 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Fulham 1.21 xG · Arsenal 1.70 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Arsenal's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Arsenal. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Arsenal's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Arsenal's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.85 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.8 goals/match	1.85 goals/match	1.49 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Arsenal.

4.96 days▲Rest daysFulham · Arsenal2.74 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Fulham	Arsenal	Baseline
Rest days	4.96 days	2.74 days	—
Matches last 14 days	2 matches	3 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Fulham have a visible home split

strong

Fulham's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.5 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	14.5 shots/match	11.5 shots/match	13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Fulham

1Draws

2Arsenal

26 Aug 2023Arsenal — Fulham · Premier League2–2

12 Mar 2023Fulham — Arsenal · Premier League0–3

27 Aug 2022Arsenal — Fulham · Premier League2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Fulham favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Arsenal in 11 · 2 too close

1.4 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 20/20▲1.85 goals/match

1.75 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 20/20▲1 goals/match

1.24 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 20/20▲1.86 xG/match

1.75 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 20/20▲0.83 xG/match

11.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 20/20▲16.3 shots/match

13.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 20/20▲8.6 shots/match

4.2 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 20/20▲5.5 shots/match

5.5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 20/20▲2.65 shots/match

50.2%Possessionseason · 20/20●60.7%

4.95 corners/matchCornersseason · 20/20●7.9 corners/match

4.3 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 20/20▲2.55 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

9.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/209.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

25%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/20▲35%

60%Scoring frequencyseason · 20/20▲85%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Fulham52.5

Arsenal87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Fulham35

Arsenal75.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Fulham33.3

Arsenal94.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Fulham12.5

Arsenal47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Fulham12.5

Arsenal7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Fulham42.5

Arsenal97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Fulham29.4

Arsenal66.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Fulham20 matchesArsenal20 matches

1.4 goals/matchGoals scored20/20▲1.85 goals/match

1.75 goals/matchGoals allowed20/20▲1 goals/match

1.24 xG/matchExpected goals20/20▲1.86 xG/match

11.5 shots/matchShots20/20▲16.3 shots/match

4.2 shots/matchShots on target20/20▲5.5 shots/match

50.2%Possession20/20●60.7%

4.95 corners/matchCorners20/20●7.9 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.9 fouls/matchFouls20/209.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Fulham10 matchesArsenal10 matches

1.9 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.5 goals/match

1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1 goals/match

1.62 xG/matchExpected goals10/101.57 xG/match

14.5 shots/matchShots10/1014.5 shots/match

4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.2 shots/match

58.7%Possession10/10●60.2%

6.5 corners/matchCorners10/10●7.1 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.96 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/12.74 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples20 / 20home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 31 Dec 2023, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4