Premier League · 2023Thu, 28 Dec 2023, 20:15 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Arsenal

WWLWD

0–2Full-time recap

West Ham United

DWLWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Arsenal	West Ham United
Shots	30 shots/match▲	6 shots/match
Shots on target	8 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	2.77 xG/match▲	1.42 xG/match
Possession	74%●	26%
Corners	10 corners/match●	3 corners/match
Fouls	8 fouls/match	8 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Arsenal: 30 shots, 8 on target, 2.91 xG. West Ham United: 6 shots, 3 on target, 1.47 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Arsenal 2.91 xG · West Ham United 1.47 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: West Ham United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Arsenal's last-five shots average is above their season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

West Ham United show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

West Ham United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

16.4 shots/match▲ShotsArsenal · West Ham United11.4 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Arsenal	West Ham United	Baseline
Shots	16.4 shots/match	11.4 shots/match	13.6 shots/match
Shots against	8.26 shots/match	16.4 shots/match	13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Arsenal's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Arsenal's last-five shots average is above their season average.

20.8 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season16.4 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	20.8 shots/match	16.4 shots/match	13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Arsenal have recorded the higher season possession share.

60.7%●PossessionArsenal · West Ham United40.6%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 20.1 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Arsenal	West Ham United	Baseline
Possession	60.7%	40.6%	49.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Arsenal

1Draws

0West Ham United

16 Apr 2023West Ham United — Arsenal · Premier League2–2

26 Dec 2022Arsenal — West Ham United · Premier League3–1

1 May 2022West Ham United — Arsenal · Premier League1–2

15 Dec 2021Arsenal — West Ham United · Premier League2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Arsenal favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · West Ham United in 1 · 2 too close

1.89 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 19/191.74 goals/match

0.95 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 19/191.58 goals/match

1.87 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 19/191.43 xG/match

0.81 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 19/191.76 xG/match

16.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 19/1911.4 shots/match

8.26 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 19/1916.4 shots/match

5.63 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 19/194.21 shots/match

2.58 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 19/195.42 shots/match

60.7%●Possessionseason · 19/1940.6%

8.11 corners/match●Cornersseason · 19/194.68 corners/match

2.42 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 19/196.58 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

9.68 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 19/1911 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

37%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 19/1921%

84%Scoring frequencyseason · 19/19▲89%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Arsenal87.5

West Ham United22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Arsenal79.2

West Ham United41.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Arsenal94.2

West Ham United25.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Arsenal52.5

West Ham United67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Arsenal7.5

West Ham United45

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Arsenal97.5

West Ham United22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Arsenal68.8

West Ham United32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Arsenal19 matchesWest Ham United19 matches

1.89 goals/match▲Goals scored19/191.74 goals/match

0.95 goals/match▲Goals allowed19/191.58 goals/match

1.87 xG/match▲Expected goals19/191.43 xG/match

16.4 shots/match▲Shots19/1911.4 shots/match

5.63 shots/match▲Shots on target19/194.21 shots/match

60.7%●Possession19/1940.6%

8.11 corners/match●Corners19/194.68 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.68 fouls/matchFouls19/1911 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Arsenal10 matchesWest Ham United10 matches

2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.6 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102 goals/match

2.14 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.53 xG/match

18 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.1 shots/match

6.8 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.9 shots/match

61.1%●Possession10/1037.6%

8.7 corners/match●Corners10/104.6 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.11 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.32 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples19 / 19home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Fri, 29 Dec 2023, 00:15 UTC · analysis-v4