PitchMath
Premier League · 2023Tue, 26 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
3–0Full-time recap

Fulham

LWWLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBournemouthFulham
Shots16 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Expected goals1.82 xG/match▲0.28 xG/match
Possession43%57%●
Corners6 corners/match●5 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Antonee Robinson · Fulham · 7′ · 0.01 xG · on targetRodrigo Muniz · Fulham · 28′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Tavernier · Bournemouth · 34′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDavid Brooks · Bournemouth · 90′ · 0.01 xG · on targetAntoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 5′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Muniz · Fulham · 29′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Tavernier · Bournemouth · 37′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDango Ouattara · Bournemouth · 41′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAndreas Pereira · Fulham · 58′ · 0.03 xG · on targetRodrigo Muniz · Fulham · 70′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMarcus Tavernier · Bournemouth · 75′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRyan Christie · Bournemouth · 76′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKenny Tete · Fulham · 9′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBobby De Cordova-Reid · Fulham · 7′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Tavernier · Bournemouth · 59′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLuis Sinisterra · Bournemouth · 90′ · 0.05 xG · goalRodrigo Muniz · Fulham · 16′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedDominic Solanke · Bournemouth · 67′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedDominic Solanke · Bournemouth · 10′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedDango Ouattara · Bournemouth · 11′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Tavernier · Bournemouth · 76′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedJustin Kluivert · Bournemouth · 31′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedJustin Kluivert · Bournemouth · 44′ · 0.15 xG · goalDominic Solanke · Bournemouth · 62′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Bournemouth: 16 shots, 4 on target, 1.86 xG. Fulham: 8 shots, 3 on target, 0.29 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Justin Kluivert · Bournemouth · 44′Dominic Solanke · Bournemouth · 62′Luis Sinisterra · Bournemouth · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Bournemouth 1.86 xG · Fulham 0.29 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bournemouth's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Bournemouth, Fulham. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Bournemouth's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bournemouth's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.6 goals/match1.5 goals/match1.46 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Bournemouth, Fulham.

3 days▲Rest daysBournemouth · Fulham3 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricBournemouthFulhamBaseline
Rest days3 days3 days—
Matches last 14 days1 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Fulham have a visible away split

moderate

Fulham's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.5 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.5 shots/match11.3 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Bournemouth
3Draws
0Fulham
Bournemouth — Fulham · Premier League2–1
Fulham — Bournemouth · Premier League2–2
Bournemouth — Fulham · Championship1–1
Fulham — Bournemouth · Championship1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Bournemouth favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Fulham in 2 · 3 too close

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 18/191.37 goals/match
1.78 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 18/191.79 goals/match
1.43 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 18/191.24 xG/match
1.63 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 18/191.76 xG/match
12.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 18/1911.3 shots/match
15.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 18/19▲13.1 shots/match
4.94 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 18/194.21 shots/match
5.22 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 18/195.63 shots/match
43.4%Possessionseason · 18/19●50.7%
5.39 corners/match●Cornersseason · 18/194.95 corners/match
6.39 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 18/19▲4.32 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
12.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/199.84 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
28%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/1926%
78%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 18/1958%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bournemouth32.5
Fulham52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bournemouth50.8
Fulham32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bournemouth25.8
Fulham30
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bournemouth82.5
Fulham7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth87.5
Fulham12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth65
Fulham42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bournemouth63.1
Fulham27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Bournemouth18 matchesFulham19 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored18/191.37 goals/match
1.78 goals/matchGoals allowed18/191.79 goals/match
1.43 xG/match▲Expected goals18/191.24 xG/match
12.8 shots/match▲Shots18/1911.3 shots/match
4.94 shots/match▲Shots on target18/194.21 shots/match
43.4%Possession18/19●50.7%
5.39 corners/match●Corners18/194.95 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.5 fouls/matchFouls18/199.84 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Bournemouth9 matchesFulham10 matches
1.22 goals/match▲Goals scored9/100.9 goals/match
1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/102.3 goals/match
1.31 xG/match▲Expected goals9/100.85 xG/match
12.9 shots/match▲Shots9/108.5 shots/match
4.89 shots/match▲Shots on target9/103.9 shots/match
43.2%●Possession9/1041.6%
6.11 corners/match●Corners9/103.4 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.6 fouls/matchFouls9/1010.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples18 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 26 Dec 2023, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBournemouthFulham
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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