Premier League · 2023Sat, 23 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Nottingham Forest

LLLDL

2–3Full-time recap

Bournemouth

WWDWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Bournemouth
Shots	11 shots/match	18 shots/match▲
Shots on target	5 shots/match	7 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.02 xG/match	1.61 xG/match▲
Possession	33%	67%●
Corners	6 corners/match	6 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Nottingham Forest: 11 shots, 4 on target, 1.01 xG. Bournemouth: 18 shots, 6 on target, 1.66 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nottingham Forest 1.01 xG · Bournemouth 1.66 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bournemouth's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Nottingham Forest's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Bournemouth's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bournemouth's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.41 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.6 goals/match	1.41 goals/match	1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nottingham Forest have a visible home split

moderate

Nottingham Forest's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season10.9 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	13 shots/match	10.9 shots/match	13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Nottingham Forest

1Draws

3Bournemouth

21 Jan 2023Bournemouth — Nottingham Forest · Premier League1–1

3 Sept 2022Nottingham Forest — Bournemouth · Premier League2–3

3 May 2022Bournemouth — Nottingham Forest · Championship1–0

14 Aug 2021Nottingham Forest — Bournemouth · Championship1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Nottingham Forest favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Bournemouth in 6 · 4 too close

1.06 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 18/17▲1.41 goals/match

1.83 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 18/171.88 goals/match

1.1 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 18/17▲1.41 xG/match

1.54 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 18/171.71 xG/match

10.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 18/17▲12.6 shots/match

13.5 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 18/1715.9 shots/match

3.28 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 18/17▲5 shots/match

4.83 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 18/175.35 shots/match

39.3%Possessionseason · 18/17●43.5%

3.78 corners/matchCornersseason · 18/17●5.35 corners/match

6.28 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 18/176.47 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1712.6 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

17%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/17▲24%

67%Scoring frequencyseason · 18/17▲76%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nottingham Forest12.5

Bournemouth32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nottingham Forest18.3

Bournemouth48.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nottingham Forest35.8

Bournemouth16.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nottingham Forest67.5

Bournemouth82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest60

Bournemouth92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest7.5

Bournemouth62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nottingham Forest25

Bournemouth63.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Nottingham Forest18 matchesBournemouth17 matches

1.06 goals/matchGoals scored18/17▲1.41 goals/match

1.83 goals/matchGoals allowed18/171.88 goals/match

1.1 xG/matchExpected goals18/17▲1.41 xG/match

10.9 shots/matchShots18/17▲12.6 shots/match

3.28 shots/matchShots on target18/17▲5 shots/match

39.3%Possession18/17●43.5%

3.78 corners/matchCorners18/17●5.35 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.4 fouls/matchFouls18/1712.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Nottingham Forest9 matchesBournemouth9 matches

1.33 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲1.78 goals/match

1.56 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/92.22 goals/match

1.21 xG/matchExpected goals9/9▲1.55 xG/match

13 shots/matchShots9/912.8 shots/match

3.67 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲5 shots/match

44%●Possession9/943.7%

4.22 corners/matchCorners9/9●4.67 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.9 fouls/matchFouls9/912.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.79 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples18 / 17home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 23 Dec 2023, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

Shot map

Expected-goals timeline

What the record shows

Bournemouth's recent record differs from the season

Nottingham Forest have a visible home split

Head-to-head

Team comparison

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

Make a graphic from this match