Premier League · 2023Sat, 23 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Fulham

WLWWL

0–2Full-time recap

Burnley

LWLDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Fulham	Burnley
Shots	19 shots/match▲	7 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	1.42 xG/match▲	0.37 xG/match
Possession	66%●	34%
Corners	8 corners/match●	6 corners/match
Fouls	5 fouls/match	17 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Fulham: 19 shots, 5 on target, 1.47 xG. Burnley: 7 shots, 2 on target, 0.38 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Fulham 1.47 xG · Burnley 0.38 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Fulham's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Fulham's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Fulham's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fulham's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.44 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.6 goals/match	1.44 goals/match	1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Fulham have a visible home split

moderate

Fulham's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.4 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	14.4 shots/match	11.5 shots/match	13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Fulham favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Burnley in 0 · 5 too close

1.44 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 18/181 goals/match

1.72 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 18/182 goals/match

1.29 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 18/180.87 xG/match

1.75 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 18/181.69 xG/match

11.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 18/1810.6 shots/match

12.9 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 18/1814.6 shots/match

4.28 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 18/183.28 shots/match

5.72 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 18/185.89 shots/match

50.3%●Possessionseason · 18/1849.3%

4.94 corners/matchCornersseason · 18/18●5.78 corners/match

4.22 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 18/185.72 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

9.83 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1811 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

28%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/1811%

61%Scoring frequencyseason · 18/1861%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Fulham52.5

Burnley47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Fulham38.3

Burnley11.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Fulham31.7

Burnley14.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Fulham12.5

Burnley2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Fulham12.5

Burnley35

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Fulham40

Burnley72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Fulham28.8

Burnley32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Fulham18 matchesBurnley18 matches

1.44 goals/match▲Goals scored18/181 goals/match

1.72 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/182 goals/match

1.29 xG/match▲Expected goals18/180.87 xG/match

11.5 shots/match▲Shots18/1810.6 shots/match

4.28 shots/match▲Shots on target18/183.28 shots/match

50.3%●Possession18/1849.3%

4.94 corners/matchCorners18/18●5.78 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.83 fouls/matchFouls18/1811 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Fulham9 matchesBurnley9 matches

1.89 goals/match▲Goals scored9/90.89 goals/match

1.22 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.56 goals/match

1.66 xG/match▲Expected goals9/90.71 xG/match

14.4 shots/match▲Shots9/98.56 shots/match

4.56 shots/match▲Shots on target9/92.89 shots/match

60.8%●Possession9/945%

6.67 corners/match●Corners9/94.56 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9 fouls/matchFouls9/911.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.9 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples18 / 18home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 23 Dec 2023, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4