Premier League · 2023Fri, 12 Jan 2024, 19:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Burnley

DLWLL

1–1Full-time recap

Luton Town

LLWWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Burnley	Luton Town
Shots	13 shots/match	14 shots/match▲
Shots on target	7 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Expected goals	1.1 xG/match▲	0.95 xG/match
Possession	39%	61%●
Corners	2 corners/match	8 corners/match●
Fouls	7 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Burnley: 13 shots, 7 on target, 1.05 xG. Luton Town: 14 shots, 5 on target, 0.95 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Burnley 1.05 xG · Luton Town 0.95 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Luton Town's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Burnley's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Luton Town's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Luton Town's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.2 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.6 goals/match	1.2 goals/match	1.49 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Burnley have a visible home split

moderate

Burnley's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

12.4 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season10.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	12.4 shots/match	10.6 shots/match	13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Burnley have recorded the higher season possession share.

47.2%●PossessionBurnley · Luton Town38%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.2 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Burnley	Luton Town	Baseline
Possession	47.2%	38%	49.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Burnley

1Draws

0Luton Town

3 Oct 2023Luton Town — Burnley · Premier League1–2

18 Feb 2023Luton Town — Burnley · Championship0–1

6 Aug 2022Burnley — Luton Town · Championship1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Burnley favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Luton Town in 4 · 5 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 21/20▲1.2 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 21/20▲1.9 goals/match

0.89 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 21/20▲1.03 xG/match

1.74 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 21/202.04 xG/match

10.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 21/2011.1 shots/match

15 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 21/2017.2 shots/match

3.38 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 21/203.1 shots/match

6.1 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 21/205.85 shots/match

47.2%●Possessionseason · 21/2038%

5.33 corners/match●Cornersseason · 21/205.3 corners/match

5.76 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 21/205.55 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2012 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

10%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/205%

62%Scoring frequencyseason · 21/20▲80%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Burnley37.5

Luton Town7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Burnley10.8

Luton Town18.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Burnley14.2

Luton Town10.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Burnley2.5

Luton Town82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Burnley32.5

Luton Town70

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Burnley62.5

Luton Town57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Burnley30

Luton Town38.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Burnley21 matchesLuton Town20 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored21/20▲1.2 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed21/20▲1.9 goals/match

0.89 xG/matchExpected goals21/20▲1.03 xG/match

10.6 shots/matchShots21/2011.1 shots/match

3.38 shots/match▲Shots on target21/203.1 shots/match

47.2%●Possession21/2038%

5.33 corners/match●Corners21/205.3 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.8 fouls/matchFouls21/2012 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Burnley11 matchesLuton Town10 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored11/10▲1.1 goals/match

2.27 goals/matchGoals allowed11/10▲2.1 goals/match

1.01 xG/match▲Expected goals11/100.83 xG/match

12.4 shots/match▲Shots11/109.9 shots/match

3.64 shots/match▲Shots on target11/102.7 shots/match

50.2%●Possession11/1036.4%

6.27 corners/match●Corners11/104.5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.82 fouls/matchFouls11/1011.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113.3 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples21 / 20home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Fri, 12 Jan 2024, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4