Premier League · 2023Sun, 14 Jan 2024, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Everton

WWLLL

0–0Full-time recap

Aston Villa

WWDLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Everton	Aston Villa
Shots	10 shots/match	16 shots/match▲
Shots on target	2 shots/match	5 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.2 xG/match	1.26 xG/match▲
Possession	31%	69%●
Corners	4 corners/match	5 corners/match●
Fouls	13 fouls/match	14 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Everton: 10 shots, 2 on target, 1.22 xG. Aston Villa: 16 shots, 4 on target, 1.26 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Everton 1.22 xG · Aston Villa 1.26 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Everton's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Aston Villa have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Everton's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Everton's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.14 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.8 goals/match	1.14 goals/match	1.49 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Aston Villa have recorded the higher season possession share.

38.9%PossessionEverton · Aston Villa●55.5%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 16.6 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Everton	Aston Villa	Baseline
Possession	38.9%	55.5%	49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Everton show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Everton's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13.7 shots/match▲ShotsEverton · Aston Villa14.7 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Everton	Aston Villa	Baseline
Shots	13.7 shots/match	14.7 shots/match	13.5 shots/match
Shots against	13.2 shots/match	10 shots/match	13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Everton

0Draws

5Aston Villa

20 Aug 2023Aston Villa — Everton · Premier League4–0

25 Feb 2023Everton — Aston Villa · Premier League0–2

13 Aug 2022Aston Villa — Everton · Premier League2–1

22 Jan 2022Everton — Aston Villa · Premier League0–1

18 Sept 2021Aston Villa — Everton · Premier League3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Everton favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 8 · 4 too close

1.14 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 21/21▲2.05 goals/match

1.33 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 21/211.29 goals/match

1.51 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 21/21▲1.81 xG/match

1.4 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 21/21▲1.29 xG/match

13.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 21/21▲14.7 shots/match

13.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 21/21▲10 shots/match

4.52 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 21/21▲5.33 shots/match

4.1 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 21/214.19 shots/match

38.9%Possessionseason · 21/21●55.5%

4.71 corners/matchCornersseason · 21/21●6.14 corners/match

5.52 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 21/21▲4 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2111 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

33%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/2124%

62%Scoring frequencyseason · 21/21▲86%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Everton12.5

Aston Villa67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Everton43.3

Aston Villa74.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Everton70

Aston Villa80.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Everton97.5

Aston Villa42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Everton87.5

Aston Villa52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Everton30

Aston Villa77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Everton56.9

Aston Villa67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Everton21 matchesAston Villa21 matches

1.14 goals/matchGoals scored21/21▲2.05 goals/match

1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed21/211.29 goals/match

1.51 xG/matchExpected goals21/21▲1.81 xG/match

13.7 shots/matchShots21/21▲14.7 shots/match

4.52 shots/matchShots on target21/21▲5.33 shots/match

38.9%Possession21/21●55.5%

4.71 corners/matchCorners21/21●6.14 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.7 fouls/matchFouls21/2111 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Everton11 matchesAston Villa11 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲1.27 goals/match

1.09 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/111.73 goals/match

1.79 xG/match▲Expected goals11/111.44 xG/match

15.5 shots/match▲Shots11/1114 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on target11/114.64 shots/match

38.7%Possession11/11●53.7%

5 corners/matchCorners11/11●7 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.5 fouls/matchFouls11/1110.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

15 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/115 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples21 / 21home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 14 Jan 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4