PitchMath
Premier League · 2023Sun, 14 Jan 2024, 16:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
2–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricManchester UnitedTottenham Hotspur
Shots9 shots/match16 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match6 shots/match▲
Expected goals0.75 xG/match1.23 xG/match▲
Possession36%64%●
Corners8 corners/match13 corners/match●
Fouls8 fouls/match5 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Bruno Fernandes · Manchester United · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDiogo Dalot · Manchester United · 31′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOliver Skipp · Tottenham Hotspur · 69′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPedro Porro · Tottenham Hotspur · 9′ · 0.03 xG · on targetTimo Werner · Tottenham Hotspur · 22′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBrennan Johnson · Tottenham Hotspur · 82′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Rashford · Manchester United · 8′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTimo Werner · Tottenham Hotspur · 11′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTimo Werner · Tottenham Hotspur · 24′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBruno Fernandes · Manchester United · 86′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBrennan Johnson · Tottenham Hotspur · 30′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMarcus Rashford · Manchester United · 40′ · 0.05 xG · goalPierre-Emile Højbjerg · Tottenham Hotspur · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRicharlison · Tottenham Hotspur · 52′ · 0.06 xG · on targetRasmus Højlund · Manchester United · 3′ · 0.07 xG · goalScott McTominay · Manchester United · 62′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedRaphaël Varane · Manchester United · 45′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedTimo Werner · Tottenham Hotspur · 45′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedTimo Werner · Tottenham Hotspur · 58′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Bentancur · Tottenham Hotspur · 70′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Bentancur · Tottenham Hotspur · 11′ · 0.10 xG · on targetRodrigo Bentancur · Tottenham Hotspur · 46′ · 0.11 xG · goalRicharlison · Tottenham Hotspur · 19′ · 0.20 xG · goalCristian Romero · Tottenham Hotspur · 45′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedScott McTominay · Manchester United · 90′ · 0.33 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Manchester United: 9 shots, 2 on target, 0.73 xG. Tottenham Hotspur: 16 shots, 6 on target, 1.24 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Rasmus Højlund · Manchester United · 3′Marcus Rashford · Manchester United · 40′Richarlison · Tottenham Hotspur · 19′Rodrigo Bentancur · Tottenham Hotspur · 46′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Manchester United 0.73 xG · Tottenham Hotspur 1.24 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester United's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Manchester United's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Manchester United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Manchester United's last-five shots average is below their season average.

9.8 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots9.8 shots/match13.9 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Manchester United have a visible home split

moderate

Manchester United's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.3 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.3 shots/match13.9 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Tottenham Hotspur show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Tottenham Hotspur's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.9 shots/match▲ShotsManchester United · Tottenham Hotspur16 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricManchester UnitedTottenham HotspurBaseline
Shots13.9 shots/match16 shots/match13.5 shots/match
Shots against15.1 shots/match14 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Manchester United
1Draws
1Tottenham Hotspur
Tottenham Hotspur — Manchester United · Premier League2–0
Tottenham Hotspur — Manchester United · Premier League2–2
Manchester United — Tottenham Hotspur · Premier League2–0
Manchester United — Tottenham Hotspur · Premier League3–2
Tottenham Hotspur — Manchester United · Premier League0–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Manchester United favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Tottenham Hotspur in 7 · 2 too close

1.14 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 21/21▲2.1 goals/match
1.38 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 21/211.48 goals/match
1.43 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 21/21▲1.75 xG/match
1.63 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 21/211.73 xG/match
13.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 21/21▲16 shots/match
15.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 21/21▲14 shots/match
4.38 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 21/21▲6.05 shots/match
4.9 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 21/21▲4.52 shots/match
51.9%Possessionseason · 21/21●59.9%
6.38 corners/match●Cornersseason · 21/215.71 corners/match
6.43 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 21/216.81 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
10.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2110.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
29%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/2124%
67%Scoring frequencyseason · 21/21▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester United57.5
Tottenham Hotspur77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester United43.3
Tottenham Hotspur84.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester United45.8
Tottenham Hotspur52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester United52.5
Tottenham Hotspur47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester United17.5
Tottenham Hotspur27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester United82.5
Tottenham Hotspur67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester United52.5
Tottenham Hotspur65
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Manchester United21 matchesTottenham Hotspur21 matches
1.14 goals/matchGoals scored21/21▲2.1 goals/match
1.38 goals/match▲Goals allowed21/211.48 goals/match
1.43 xG/matchExpected goals21/21▲1.75 xG/match
13.9 shots/matchShots21/21▲16 shots/match
4.38 shots/matchShots on target21/21▲6.05 shots/match
51.9%Possession21/21●59.9%
6.38 corners/match●Corners21/215.71 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.4 fouls/matchFouls21/2110.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Manchester United11 matchesTottenham Hotspur11 matches
1.36 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲2.18 goals/match
1.64 goals/matchGoals allowed11/111.64 goals/match
1.73 xG/match▲Expected goals11/111.5 xG/match
16.3 shots/match▲Shots11/1114.1 shots/match
5.09 shots/matchShots on target11/114.91 shots/match
54.8%Possession11/11●60.5%
8.64 corners/match●Corners11/115.27 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.1 fouls/matchFouls11/1111 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

15 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114.1 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 14 Jan 2024, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsManchester UnitedTottenham Hotspur
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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