Premier League · 2023Wed, 31 Jan 2024, 19:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Tottenham Hotspur

WWLWD

3–2Full-time recap

Brentford

LLLLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Tottenham Hotspur	Brentford
Shots	19 shots/match▲	9 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match	5 shots/match
Expected goals	3.01 xG/match▲	1.59 xG/match
Possession	68%●	32%
Corners	5 corners/match●	3 corners/match
Fouls	13 fouls/match	15 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Tottenham Hotspur: 19 shots, 5 on target, 3.00 xG. Brentford: 9 shots, 5 on target, 1.67 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Tottenham Hotspur 3.00 xG · Brentford 1.67 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Brentford's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Tottenham Hotspur have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Brentford's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Brentford's last-five shots average is below their season average.

9.4 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	9.4 shots/match	13.1 shots/match	13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Tottenham Hotspur have recorded the higher season possession share.

60.2%●PossessionTottenham Hotspur · Brentford47.9%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.4 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Tottenham Hotspur	Brentford	Baseline
Possession	60.2%	47.9%	49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Tottenham Hotspur

3Draws

1Brentford

13 Aug 2023Brentford — Tottenham Hotspur · Premier League2–2

20 May 2023Tottenham Hotspur — Brentford · Premier League1–3

26 Dec 2022Brentford — Tottenham Hotspur · Premier League2–2

23 Apr 2022Brentford — Tottenham Hotspur · Premier League0–0

2 Dec 2021Tottenham Hotspur — Brentford · Premier League2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Tottenham Hotspur favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Brentford in 3 · 4 too close

2.14 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 22/211.48 goals/match

1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 22/211.71 goals/match

1.81 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 22/211.74 xG/match

1.73 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 22/21▲1.42 xG/match

16.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 22/2113.1 shots/match

13.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 22/2113.3 shots/match

6 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 22/214.38 shots/match

4.55 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 22/21▲4.29 shots/match

60.2%●Possessionseason · 22/2147.9%

5.68 corners/match●Cornersseason · 22/214.81 corners/match

6.64 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 22/21▲5.48 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 22/2111 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

23%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 22/2114%

100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 22/2181%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Tottenham Hotspur82.5

Brentford47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Tottenham Hotspur84.2

Brentford46.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Tottenham Hotspur54.2

Brentford52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Tottenham Hotspur52.5

Brentford62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Tottenham Hotspur32.5

Brentford42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Tottenham Hotspur67.5

Brentford27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Tottenham Hotspur66.2

Brentford39.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Tottenham Hotspur22 matchesBrentford21 matches

2.14 goals/match▲Goals scored22/211.48 goals/match

1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed22/211.71 goals/match

1.81 xG/matchExpected goals22/211.74 xG/match

16.1 shots/match▲Shots22/2113.1 shots/match

6 shots/match▲Shots on target22/214.38 shots/match

60.2%●Possession22/2147.9%

5.68 corners/match●Corners22/214.81 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.7 fouls/matchFouls22/2111 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Tottenham Hotspur11 matchesBrentford10 matches

2.09 goals/match▲Goals scored11/101.1 goals/match

1.36 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/101.6 goals/match

2.11 xG/match▲Expected goals11/101.6 xG/match

18.2 shots/match▲Shots11/1011.6 shots/match

7.09 shots/match▲Shots on target11/104.1 shots/match

59.9%●Possession11/1044.1%

6.09 corners/match●Corners11/104.6 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.5 fouls/matchFouls11/1011.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

17.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/111.1 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples22 / 21home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Wed, 31 Jan 2024, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4