Premier League · 2023Wed, 31 Jan 2024, 19:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Manchester City

WDWWW

3–1Full-time recap

Burnley

LWLLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Manchester City	Burnley
Shots	14 shots/match▲	8 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	1.76 xG/match▲	1.44 xG/match
Possession	74%●	26%
Corners	7 corners/match●	3 corners/match
Fouls	3 fouls/match	13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Manchester City: 14 shots, 4 on target, 1.79 xG. Burnley: 8 shots, 3 on target, 1.46 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Manchester City 1.79 xG · Burnley 1.46 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Burnley's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Manchester City's last-five shots average is above their season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Burnley show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Burnley's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

16.8 shots/match▲ShotsManchester City · Burnley10.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Manchester City	Burnley	Baseline
Shots	16.8 shots/match	10.5 shots/match	13.2 shots/match
Shots against	8 shots/match	15 shots/match	13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Manchester City's recent record differs from the season

weak

Manchester City's last-five shots average is above their season average.

20.2 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season16.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	20.2 shots/match	16.8 shots/match	13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Manchester City have recorded the higher season possession share.

64.7%●PossessionManchester City · Burnley46.2%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 18.5 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Manchester City	Burnley	Baseline
Possession	64.7%	46.2%	49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Manchester City

0Draws

0Burnley

11 Aug 2023Burnley — Manchester City · Premier League0–3

2 Apr 2022Burnley — Manchester City · Premier League0–2

16 Oct 2021Manchester City — Burnley · Premier League2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Manchester City favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Burnley in 0 · 2 too close

2.43 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 21/221 goals/match

1.14 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 21/222.05 goals/match

2.01 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 21/220.91 xG/match

0.99 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 21/221.74 xG/match

16.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 21/2210.5 shots/match

8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 21/2215 shots/match

6.9 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 20/223.36 shots/match

3.05 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 20/226 shots/match

64.7%●Possessionseason · 21/2246.2%

7.05 corners/match●Cornersseason · 21/225.23 corners/match

3.76 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 21/225.82 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

8.62 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2210.9 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

24%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/229%

90%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 21/2264%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester City97.5

Burnley37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester City95.8

Burnley10.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester City92.5

Burnley14.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester City32.5

Burnley7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester City2.5

Burnley37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester City92.5

Burnley52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester City71.2

Burnley28.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 99%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Manchester City21 matchesBurnley22 matches

2.43 goals/match▲Goals scored21/221 goals/match

1.14 goals/match▲Goals allowed21/222.05 goals/match

2.01 xG/match▲Expected goals21/220.91 xG/match

16.8 shots/match▲Shots21/2210.5 shots/match

6.9 shots/match▲Shots on target20/223.36 shots/match

64.7%●Possession21/2246.2%

7.05 corners/match●Corners21/225.23 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

8.62 fouls/matchFouls21/2210.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Manchester City10 matchesBurnley11 matches

2.7 goals/match▲Goals scored10/111 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/111.82 goals/match

1.68 xG/match▲Expected goals10/110.82 xG/match

14.3 shots/match▲Shots10/118.55 shots/match

5.44 shots/match▲Shots on target9/113.09 shots/match

64.8%●Possession10/1142.3%

7.1 corners/match●Corners10/114.18 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9 fouls/matchFouls10/1111.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

18.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/119 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples21 / 22home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Wed, 31 Jan 2024, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4