Premier League · 2023Mon, 5 Feb 2024, 20:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Brentford

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1–3Full-time recap

Manchester City

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This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Brentford	Manchester City
Shots	9 shots/match	25 shots/match▲
Shots on target	3 shots/match	15 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.04 xG/match	2.09 xG/match▲
Possession	28%	72%●
Corners	8 corners/match	13 corners/match●
Fouls	2 fouls/match	4 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Brentford: 9 shots, 2 on target, 1.04 xG. Manchester City: 25 shots, 15 on target, 2.06 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Brentford 1.04 xG · Manchester City 2.06 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester City's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Brentford's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Manchester City's recent record differs from the season

weak

Manchester City's last-five shots average is above their season average.

21.4 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season17.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	21.4 shots/match	17.1 shots/match	13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Brentford show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Brentford's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13 shots/match▲ShotsBrentford · Manchester City17.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Brentford	Manchester City	Baseline
Shots	13 shots/match	17.1 shots/match	13.1 shots/match
Shots against	13.9 shots/match	8.05 shots/match	13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Manchester City have recorded the higher season possession share.

47%PossessionBrentford · Manchester City●65%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 18.1 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Brentford	Manchester City	Baseline
Possession	47%	65%	49%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Brentford

0Draws

2Manchester City

28 May 2023Brentford — Manchester City · Premier League1–0

12 Nov 2022Manchester City — Brentford · Premier League1–2

9 Feb 2022Manchester City — Brentford · Premier League2–0

29 Dec 2021Brentford — Manchester City · Premier League0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Brentford favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Manchester City in 11 · 2 too close

1.45 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 22/22▲2.45 goals/match

1.77 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 22/22▲1.14 goals/match

1.71 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 22/22▲2.01 xG/match

1.45 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 22/22▲0.99 xG/match

13 shots/matchShotsseason · 22/22▲17.1 shots/match

13.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 22/22▲8.05 shots/match

4.32 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 22/21▲7.29 shots/match

4.77 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 22/21▲3.05 shots/match

47%Possessionseason · 22/22●65%

4.95 corners/matchCornersseason · 22/22●7.32 corners/match

5.82 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 22/22▲3.95 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 22/228.41 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

14%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 22/22▲23%

82%Scoring frequencyseason · 22/22▲91%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brentford47.5

Manchester City97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brentford41.7

Manchester City95.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 99%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brentford40.8

Manchester City92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 99%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brentford72.5

Manchester City42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brentford27.5

Manchester City2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brentford27.5

Manchester City92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brentford33.8

Manchester City71.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 99%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Brentford22 matchesManchester City22 matches

1.45 goals/matchGoals scored22/22▲2.45 goals/match

1.77 goals/matchGoals allowed22/22▲1.14 goals/match

1.71 xG/matchExpected goals22/22▲2.01 xG/match

13 shots/matchShots22/22▲17.1 shots/match

4.32 shots/matchShots on target22/21▲7.29 shots/match

47%Possession22/22●65%

4.95 corners/matchCorners22/22●7.32 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFouls22/228.41 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Brentford12 matchesManchester City12 matches

1.75 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲2.25 goals/match

1.92 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲1.25 goals/match

1.8 xG/matchExpected goals12/12▲2.29 xG/match

14.1 shots/matchShots12/12▲19.5 shots/match

4.5 shots/matchShots on target12/12▲8.67 shots/match

49.3%Possession12/12●65.3%

5.25 corners/matchCorners12/12●7.5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.75 fouls/matchFouls12/127.92 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.02 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.02 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples22 / 22home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Tue, 6 Feb 2024, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4