PitchMath
Premier League · 2023Thu, 1 Feb 2024, 19:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricWest Ham UnitedBournemouth
Shots9 shots/match9 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Expected goals1.39 xG/match▲1.2 xG/match
Possession49%51%●
Corners1 corners/match5 corners/match●
Fouls13 fouls/match11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Kalvin Phillips · West Ham United · 16′ · 0.01 xG · on targetLewis Cook · Bournemouth · 15′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEdson Álvarez · West Ham United · 57′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJarrod Bowen · West Ham United · 80′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 18′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLloyd Kelly · Bournemouth · 63′ · 0.04 xG · on targetRyan Christie · Bournemouth · 65′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJarrod Bowen · West Ham United · 68′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedTomáš Souček · West Ham United · 75′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedTomáš Souček · West Ham United · 54′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLuis Sinisterra · Bournemouth · 85′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 45′ · 0.07 xG · on targetMarcos Senesi · Bournemouth · 6′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedTomáš Souček · West Ham United · 40′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedJarrod Bowen · West Ham United · 38′ · 0.20 xG · on targetAntoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 36′ · 0.30 xG · on targetDominic Solanke · Bournemouth · 3′ · 0.51 xG · goalJames Ward-Prowse · West Ham United · 61′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

West Ham United: 9 shots, 3 on target, 1.43 xG. Bournemouth: 9 shots, 4 on target, 1.20 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′James Ward-Prowse · West Ham United · 61′Dominic Solanke · Bournemouth · 3′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: West Ham United 1.43 xG · Bournemouth 1.20 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bournemouth's last-five shots average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Bournemouth's recent record differs from the season

weak

Bournemouth's last-five shots average is above their season average.

15.6 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots15.6 shots/match13.1 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2West Ham United
1Draws
0Bournemouth
Bournemouth — West Ham United · Premier League1–1
Bournemouth — West Ham United · Premier League0–4
West Ham United — Bournemouth · Premier League2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

West Ham United favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Bournemouth in 4 · 6 too close

1.64 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 22/211.38 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 22/211.9 goals/match
1.44 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 22/211.43 xG/match
1.8 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 22/21▲1.65 xG/match
11.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 22/21▲13.1 shots/match
16.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 22/21▲15 shots/match
4.09 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 22/21▲4.67 shots/match
5.5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 22/215.24 shots/match
40.6%Possessionseason · 22/21●43.9%
4.23 corners/matchCornersseason · 22/21●5.86 corners/match
6.09 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 22/215.95 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
10.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 22/2112.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
23%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 22/2124%
86%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 22/2176%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

West Ham United22.5
Bournemouth32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

West Ham United33.3
Bournemouth47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

West Ham United30.8
Bournemouth24.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

West Ham United77.5
Bournemouth82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

West Ham United30
Bournemouth82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

West Ham United12.5
Bournemouth72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

West Ham United20.6
Bournemouth63.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

West Ham United22 matchesBournemouth21 matches
1.64 goals/match▲Goals scored22/211.38 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed22/211.9 goals/match
1.44 xG/matchExpected goals22/211.43 xG/match
11.2 shots/matchShots22/21▲13.1 shots/match
4.09 shots/matchShots on target22/21▲4.67 shots/match
40.6%Possession22/21●43.9%
4.23 corners/matchCorners22/21●5.86 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.7 fouls/matchFouls22/2112.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

West Ham United11 matchesBournemouth11 matches
1.64 goals/matchGoals scored11/111.64 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/112.18 goals/match
1.28 xG/matchExpected goals11/11▲1.53 xG/match
10.9 shots/matchShots11/11▲13.5 shots/match
4.18 shots/matchShots on target11/11▲4.82 shots/match
43.2%Possession11/11●44.8%
4.18 corners/matchCorners11/11●5.45 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.1 fouls/matchFouls11/1112.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

11.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/111.1 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples22 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 1 Feb 2024, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsWest Ham UnitedBournemouth
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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