Premier League · 2023Sun, 4 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Bournemouth

WWLLD

1–1Full-time recap

Nottingham Forest

LWWLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Bournemouth	Nottingham Forest
Shots	9 shots/match▲	8 shots/match
Shots on target	2 shots/match	6 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.27 xG/match▲	0.53 xG/match
Possession	44%	56%●
Corners	11 corners/match●	6 corners/match
Fouls	19 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Bournemouth: 9 shots, 1 on target, 1.54 xG. Nottingham Forest: 8 shots, 6 on target, 0.53 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Bournemouth 1.54 xG · Nottingham Forest 0.53 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Bournemouth. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.22 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.8 goals/match	1.22 goals/match	1.52 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Bournemouth.

2.77 days▲Rest daysBournemouth · Nottingham Forest4.77 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Bournemouth	Nottingham Forest	Baseline
Rest days	2.77 days	4.77 days	—
Matches last 14 days	2 matches	1 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

4Bournemouth

1Draws

0Nottingham Forest

23 Dec 2023Nottingham Forest — Bournemouth · Premier League2–3

21 Jan 2023Bournemouth — Nottingham Forest · Premier League1–1

3 Sept 2022Nottingham Forest — Bournemouth · Premier League2–3

3 May 2022Bournemouth — Nottingham Forest · Championship1–0

14 Aug 2021Nottingham Forest — Bournemouth · Championship1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Bournemouth favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 3 · 4 too close

1.36 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 22/231.22 goals/match

1.86 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 22/231.78 goals/match

1.42 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 22/231.14 xG/match

1.6 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 22/23▲1.5 xG/match

12.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 22/2310.8 shots/match

14.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 22/23▲13.5 shots/match

4.55 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 22/233.43 shots/match

5.27 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 22/23▲4.74 shots/match

43.9%●Possessionseason · 22/2340.3%

6.09 corners/match●Cornersseason · 22/233.74 corners/match

5.95 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 22/236.74 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 22/2311.2 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

23%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 22/2313%

77%Scoring frequencyseason · 22/2374%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bournemouth32.5

Nottingham Forest17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bournemouth44.2

Nottingham Forest15.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bournemouth24.2

Nottingham Forest43.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bournemouth82.5

Nottingham Forest47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth92.5

Nottingham Forest57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth72.5

Nottingham Forest7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bournemouth65

Nottingham Forest22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Bournemouth22 matchesNottingham Forest23 matches

1.36 goals/match▲Goals scored22/231.22 goals/match

1.86 goals/matchGoals allowed22/231.78 goals/match

1.42 xG/match▲Expected goals22/231.14 xG/match

12.9 shots/match▲Shots22/2310.8 shots/match

4.55 shots/match▲Shots on target22/233.43 shots/match

43.9%●Possession22/2340.3%

6.09 corners/match●Corners22/233.74 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.8 fouls/matchFouls22/2311.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Bournemouth11 matchesNottingham Forest12 matches

1.09 goals/matchGoals scored11/121.08 goals/match

1.55 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/122 goals/match

1.31 xG/match▲Expected goals11/121.18 xG/match

12.4 shots/match▲Shots11/129.5 shots/match

4.27 shots/match▲Shots on target11/123.42 shots/match

42.9%●Possession11/1238.2%

6.73 corners/match●Corners11/123.5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.8 fouls/matchFouls11/1212 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.77 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.77 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples22 / 23home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 4 Feb 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4