Premier League · 2023Tue, 30 Jan 2024, 19:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Nottingham Forest

LLWWL

1–2Full-time recap

Arsenal

WDLLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Arsenal
Shots	9 shots/match	19 shots/match▲
Shots on target	3 shots/match	3 shots/match
Expected goals	0.47 xG/match	1.17 xG/match▲
Possession	27%	73%●
Corners	2 corners/match	10 corners/match●
Fouls	6 fouls/match	7 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Nottingham Forest: 9 shots, 3 on target, 0.47 xG. Arsenal: 19 shots, 3 on target, 1.20 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nottingham Forest 0.47 xG · Arsenal 1.20 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Nottingham Forest's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.23 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2 goals/match	1.23 goals/match	1.44 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nottingham Forest show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Nottingham Forest's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.9 shots/match▲ShotsNottingham Forest · Arsenal16.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Arsenal	Baseline
Shots	10.9 shots/match	16.6 shots/match	13.5 shots/match
Shots against	13.7 shots/match	8.77 shots/match	13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Arsenal have recorded the higher season possession share.

39.5%PossessionNottingham Forest · Arsenal●61.2%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 21.7 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Arsenal	Baseline
Possession	39.5%	61.2%	49.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Nottingham Forest

0Draws

2Arsenal

12 Aug 2023Arsenal — Nottingham Forest · Premier League2–1

20 May 2023Nottingham Forest — Arsenal · Premier League1–0

30 Oct 2022Arsenal — Nottingham Forest · Premier League5–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Nottingham Forest favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Arsenal in 11 · 2 too close

1.23 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 22/22▲2 goals/match

1.82 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 22/22▲0.95 goals/match

1.17 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 22/22▲1.89 xG/match

1.51 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 22/22▲0.79 xG/match

10.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 22/22▲16.6 shots/match

13.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 22/22▲8.77 shots/match

3.32 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 22/22▲5.45 shots/match

4.86 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 22/22▲2.77 shots/match

39.5%Possessionseason · 22/22●61.2%

3.64 corners/matchCornersseason · 22/22●7.91 corners/match

6.55 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 22/22▲2.73 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 22/229.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

14%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 22/22▲36%

73%Scoring frequencyseason · 22/22▲86%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nottingham Forest17.5

Arsenal87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nottingham Forest15.8

Arsenal80.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nottingham Forest37.5

Arsenal94.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nottingham Forest72.5

Arsenal57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest55

Arsenal7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest7.5

Arsenal97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nottingham Forest20.6

Arsenal67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Nottingham Forest22 matchesArsenal22 matches

1.23 goals/matchGoals scored22/22▲2 goals/match

1.82 goals/matchGoals allowed22/22▲0.95 goals/match

1.17 xG/matchExpected goals22/22▲1.89 xG/match

10.9 shots/matchShots22/22▲16.6 shots/match

3.32 shots/matchShots on target22/22▲5.45 shots/match

39.5%Possession22/22●61.2%

3.64 corners/matchCorners22/22●7.91 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.1 fouls/matchFouls22/229.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Nottingham Forest11 matchesArsenal11 matches

1.36 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲1.55 goals/match

1.55 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲1 goals/match

1.1 xG/matchExpected goals11/11▲1.54 xG/match

12.2 shots/matchShots11/11▲14.9 shots/match

3.45 shots/matchShots on target11/11▲4.09 shots/match

42.5%Possession11/11●61.4%

4 corners/matchCorners11/11●7.36 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.3 fouls/matchFouls11/119.91 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

10.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/110.3 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples22 / 22home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Tue, 30 Jan 2024, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4