Premier League · 2023Tue, 30 Jan 2024, 19:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Luton Town

LWWLD

4–0Full-time recap

Brighton & Hove Albion

LDWDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Luton Town	Brighton & Hove Albion
Shots	18 shots/match▲	9 shots/match
Shots on target	8 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	3.21 xG/match▲	0.94 xG/match
Possession	41%	59%●
Corners	7 corners/match●	4 corners/match
Fouls	13 fouls/match	14 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Luton Town: 17 shots, 7 on target, 2.25 xG. Brighton & Hove Albion: 9 shots, 2 on target, 0.97 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Luton Town 2.25 xG · Brighton & Hove Albion 0.97 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Luton Town's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Brighton & Hove Albion have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Luton Town's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Luton Town's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.33 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.2 goals/match	1.33 goals/match	1.44 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Brighton & Hove Albion have recorded the higher season possession share.

38.1%PossessionLuton Town · Brighton & Hove Albion●61.8%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 23.6 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Luton Town	Brighton & Hove Albion	Baseline
Possession	38.1%	61.8%	49.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Brighton & Hove Albion have a visible away split

moderate

Brighton & Hove Albion's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

12 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season14.9 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	12 shots/match	14.9 shots/match	13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Luton Town

0Draws

1Brighton & Hove Albion

12 Aug 2023Brighton & Hove Albion — Luton Town · Premier League4–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Luton Town favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Brighton & Hove Albion in 9 · 4 too close

1.33 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 21/22▲1.73 goals/match

1.81 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 21/22▲1.68 goals/match

1.14 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 21/22▲1.71 xG/match

1.99 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 21/22▲1.57 xG/match

11.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 21/22▲14.9 shots/match

16.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 21/22▲12.4 shots/match

3.33 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 21/22▲6.09 shots/match

5.67 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 21/22▲4.41 shots/match

38.1%Possessionseason · 21/22●61.8%

5.38 corners/match●Cornersseason · 21/225.18 corners/match

5.48 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 21/22▲4.05 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2211 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

10%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/229%

81%Scoring frequencyseason · 21/2282%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Luton Town7.5

Brighton & Hove Albion92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Luton Town25.8

Brighton & Hove Albion77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Luton Town15.8

Brighton & Hove Albion55.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Luton Town82.5

Brighton & Hove Albion17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Luton Town72.5

Brighton & Hove Albion47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Luton Town62.5

Brighton & Hove Albion47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Luton Town43.8

Brighton & Hove Albion65

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Luton Town21 matchesBrighton & Hove Albion22 matches

1.33 goals/matchGoals scored21/22▲1.73 goals/match

1.81 goals/matchGoals allowed21/22▲1.68 goals/match

1.14 xG/matchExpected goals21/22▲1.71 xG/match

11.4 shots/matchShots21/22▲14.9 shots/match

3.33 shots/matchShots on target21/22▲6.09 shots/match

38.1%Possession21/22●61.8%

5.38 corners/match●Corners21/225.18 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12 fouls/matchFouls21/2211 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Luton Town11 matchesBrighton & Hove Albion11 matches

1.55 goals/match▲Goals scored11/111.45 goals/match

1.55 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/112.09 goals/match

1.41 xG/matchExpected goals11/111.34 xG/match

12.8 shots/match▲Shots11/1112 shots/match

3.91 shots/matchShots on target11/11▲5 shots/match

39.7%Possession11/11●60.3%

6.18 corners/match●Corners11/112.73 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.7 fouls/matchFouls11/1110.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

18 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples21 / 22home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Tue, 30 Jan 2024, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4