PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Luton Town 4–0 Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League

4–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Luton Town won 4–0.

Shots
189
Shots on target
82
Expected goals
3.210.94
Possession
41%59%

Full time

What the match recorded

Luton Town beat Brighton & Hove Albion 4–0. Recorded in this match (Luton Town – Brighton & Hove Albion): shots 18–9, shots on target 8–2, expected goals 3.21–0.94, possession 41%–59%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Luton Town's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Luton Town's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.33 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.33 goals/match1.44 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Brighton & Hove Albion have recorded the higher season possession share.

38.1%PossessionLuton Town · Brighton & Hove Albion● 61.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 23.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricLuton TownBrighton & Hove AlbionBaseline
Possession38.1%61.8%49.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Brighton & Hove Albion have a visible away split

moderate

Brighton & Hove Albion's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

12 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season14.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12 shots/match14.9 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots9 shotsLuton Town 18 shots, Brighton & Hove Albion 9 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots2 shotsLuton Town 8 shots, Brighton & Hove Albion 2 shots
  • Expected goals3.21 xG0.94 xGLuton Town 3.21 xG, Brighton & Hove Albion 0.94 xG
  • Possession41%59%Luton Town 41%, Brighton & Hove Albion 59%
  • Corners7 corners4 cornersLuton Town 7 corners, Brighton & Hove Albion 4 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls14 foulsLuton Town 13 fouls, Brighton & Hove Albion 14 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Reece Burke · Luton Town · 22′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlbert Sambi Lokonga · Luton Town · 38′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBilly Gilmour · Brighton & Hove Albion · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPascal Groß · Brighton & Hove Albion · 9′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedChiedozie Ogbene · Luton Town · 55′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTahith Chong · Luton Town · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedCauley Woodrow · Luton Town · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRoss Barkley · Luton Town · 36′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJordan Clark · Luton Town · 37′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedCarlton Morris · Luton Town · 23′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJordan Clark · Luton Town · 23′ · 0.06 xG · on targetPascal Groß · Brighton & Hove Albion · 27′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedCarlton Morris · Luton Town · 48′ · 0.06 xG · on targetJames Milner · Brighton & Hove Albion · 9′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedElijah Adebayo · Luton Town · 33′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJoão Pedro · Brighton & Hove Albion · 51′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedChiedozie Ogbene · Luton Town · 47′ · 0.08 xG · on targetDanny Welbeck · Brighton & Hove Albion · 11′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedCarlton Morris · Luton Town · 1′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedCarlton Morris · Luton Town · 82′ · 0.13 xG · on targetDanny Welbeck · Brighton & Hove Albion · 77′ · 0.14 xG · on targetDanny Welbeck · Brighton & Hove Albion · 78′ · 0.22 xG · on targetTariq Lamptey · Brighton & Hove Albion · 77′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedElijah Adebayo · Luton Town · 42′ · 0.29 xG · goalElijah Adebayo · Luton Town · 1′ · 0.46 xG · goalElijah Adebayo · Luton Town · 56′ · 0.68 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Luton Town: 17 shots, 7 on target, 2.25 xG. Brighton & Hove Albion: 9 shots, 2 on target, 0.97 xG. · 1 unplaced

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Elijah Adebayo · Luton Town · 1′Elijah Adebayo · Luton Town · 42′Elijah Adebayo · Luton Town · 56′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Luton Town 2.25 xG · Brighton & Hove Albion 0.97 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Luton Town favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Brighton & Hove Albion in 9 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Luton Town21 matchesBrighton & Hove Albion22 matches
1.33 goals/matchGoals scored21/22▲ 1.73 goals/match
1.81 goals/matchGoals allowed21/22▲ 1.68 goals/match
1.14 xG/matchExpected goals21/22▲ 1.71 xG/match
11.4 shots/matchShots21/22▲ 14.9 shots/match
3.33 shots/matchShots on target21/22▲ 6.09 shots/match
38.1%Possession21/22● 61.8%
5.38 corners/match ●Corners21/225.18 corners/match
12 fouls/matchFouls21/2211 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples21 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 30 Jan 2024, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsLuton TownBrighton & Hove Albion
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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