Premier League · 2023Sat, 3 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Newcastle United

LLLLW

4–4Full-time recap

Luton Town

WWLDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Newcastle United	Luton Town
Shots	19 shots/match▲	11 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match	8 shots/match▲
Expected goals	2.4 xG/match▲	2.36 xG/match
Possession	54%●	46%
Corners	8 corners/match●	2 corners/match
Fouls	13 fouls/match	16 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Newcastle United: 19 shots, 6 on target, 2.45 xG. Luton Town: 11 shots, 8 on target, 2.38 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Newcastle United 2.45 xG · Luton Town 2.38 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Luton Town's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Newcastle United, Luton Town. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Luton Town's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Luton Town's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.45 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.8 goals/match	1.45 goals/match	1.49 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Newcastle United, Luton Town.

3.78 days▲Rest daysNewcastle United · Luton Town3.8 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Newcastle United	Luton Town	Baseline
Rest days	3.78 days	3.8 days	—
Matches last 14 days	1 matches	1 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Newcastle United have a visible home split

moderate

Newcastle United's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.8 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season14.2 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	16.8 shots/match	14.2 shots/match	13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Newcastle United

0Draws

1Luton Town

23 Dec 2023Luton Town — Newcastle United · Premier League1–0

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Newcastle United favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Luton Town in 0 · 4 too close

2.09 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 23/221.45 goals/match

1.61 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 23/221.91 goals/match

2 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 23/221.19 xG/match

1.77 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 23/222.01 xG/match

14.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 23/2211.4 shots/match

14.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 23/2216.9 shots/match

5.39 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 23/223.55 shots/match

5.48 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 23/225.68 shots/match

52.7%●Possessionseason · 23/2238.5%

4.96 corners/matchCornersseason · 23/22●5.23 corners/match

5.17 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 23/225.59 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/2212.2 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

30%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/229%

83%Scoring frequencyseason · 23/2282%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Newcastle United62.5

Luton Town7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Newcastle United69.2

Luton Town27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Newcastle United34.2

Luton Town10.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Newcastle United47.5

Luton Town82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Newcastle United22.5

Luton Town77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Newcastle United40

Luton Town57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Newcastle United48.1

Luton Town43.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Newcastle United23 matchesLuton Town22 matches

2.09 goals/match▲Goals scored23/221.45 goals/match

1.61 goals/match▲Goals allowed23/221.91 goals/match

2 xG/match▲Expected goals23/221.19 xG/match

14.2 shots/match▲Shots23/2211.4 shots/match

5.39 shots/match▲Shots on target23/223.55 shots/match

52.7%●Possession23/2238.5%

4.96 corners/matchCorners23/22●5.23 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.7 fouls/matchFouls23/2212.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Newcastle United12 matchesLuton Town11 matches

2.42 goals/match▲Goals scored12/111.36 goals/match

1.17 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/112.27 goals/match

2.33 xG/match▲Expected goals12/110.97 xG/match

16.8 shots/match▲Shots12/1110 shots/match

6.42 shots/match▲Shots on target12/113.18 shots/match

54.1%●Possession12/1137.3%

5.58 corners/match●Corners12/114.27 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10 fouls/matchFouls12/1111.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.78 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.8 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples23 / 22home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 3 Feb 2024, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4