PitchMath
Premier League · 2023Sat, 3 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
4–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBrighton & Hove AlbionCrystal Palace
Shots13 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Expected goals1.43 xG/match▲0.3 xG/match
Possession69%●31%
Corners3 corners/match●2 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match14 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Evan Ferguson · Brighton & Hove Albion · 45′ · 0.01 xG · on targetBilly Gilmour · Brighton & Hove Albion · 53′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMatheus França · Crystal Palace · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedPascal Groß · Brighton & Hove Albion · 53′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJoão Pedro · Brighton & Hove Albion · 61′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJordan Ayew · Crystal Palace · 90′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJoão Pedro · Brighton & Hove Albion · 32′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPascal Groß · Brighton & Hove Albion · 32′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJean-Philippe Mateta · Crystal Palace · 72′ · 0.03 xG · goalJeffrey Schlupp · Crystal Palace · 14′ · 0.04 xG · on targetFacundo Buonanotte · Brighton & Hove Albion · 24′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJefferson Lerma · Crystal Palace · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPascal Groß · Brighton & Hove Albion · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedTariq Lamptey · Brighton & Hove Albion · 37′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJeffrey Schlupp · Crystal Palace · 40′ · 0.06 xG · on targetJack Hinshelwood · Brighton & Hove Albion · 33′ · 0.08 xG · goalMatheus França · Crystal Palace · 81′ · 0.09 xG · on targetFacundo Buonanotte · Brighton & Hove Albion · 34′ · 0.28 xG · goalLewis Dunk · Brighton & Hove Albion · 3′ · 0.34 xG · goalJoão Pedro · Brighton & Hove Albion · 85′ · 0.52 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Brighton & Hove Albion: 13 shots, 6 on target, 1.49 xG. Crystal Palace: 7 shots, 5 on target, 0.29 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Lewis Dunk · Brighton & Hove Albion · 3′Jack Hinshelwood · Brighton & Hove Albion · 33′Facundo Buonanotte · Brighton & Hove Albion · 34′João Pedro · Brighton & Hove Albion · 85′Jean-Philippe Mateta · Crystal Palace · 72′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Brighton & Hove Albion 1.49 xG · Crystal Palace 0.29 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Crystal Palace's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Brighton & Hove Albion, Crystal Palace. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Crystal Palace's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Crystal Palace's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.13 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.13 goals/match1.49 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Brighton & Hove Albion, Crystal Palace.

3.8 days▲Rest daysBrighton & Hove Albion · Crystal Palace3.79 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricBrighton & Hove AlbionCrystal PalaceBaseline
Rest days3.8 days3.79 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches1 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Brighton & Hove Albion have recorded the higher season possession share.

62.1%●PossessionBrighton & Hove Albion · Crystal Palace42.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 19.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBrighton & Hove AlbionCrystal PalaceBaseline
Possession62.1%42.4%49.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Brighton & Hove Albion
4Draws
0Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League1–1
Brighton & Hove Albion — Crystal Palace · Premier League1–0
Crystal Palace — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League1–1
Brighton & Hove Albion — Crystal Palace · Premier League1–1
Crystal Palace — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Brighton & Hove Albion favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Crystal Palace in 1 · 6 too close

1.83 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 23/231.13 goals/match
1.65 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 23/231.74 goals/match
1.7 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 23/231.16 xG/match
1.52 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 23/231.49 xG/match
14.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 23/2311.6 shots/match
12.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 23/2312.7 shots/match
6.09 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 23/234.17 shots/match
4.43 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 23/234.26 shots/match
62.1%●Possessionseason · 23/2342.4%
5.09 corners/match●Cornersseason · 23/234.7 corners/match
3.96 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 23/234.91 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
10.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/2311.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
9%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/23▲22%
83%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 23/2374%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brighton & Hove Albion92.5
Crystal Palace27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brighton & Hove Albion77.5
Crystal Palace25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brighton & Hove Albion60
Crystal Palace59.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brighton & Hove Albion12.5
Crystal Palace57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brighton & Hove Albion42.5
Crystal Palace62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brighton & Hove Albion50
Crystal Palace22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brighton & Hove Albion64.4
Crystal Palace36.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Brighton & Hove Albion23 matchesCrystal Palace23 matches
1.83 goals/match▲Goals scored23/231.13 goals/match
1.65 goals/matchGoals allowed23/231.74 goals/match
1.7 xG/match▲Expected goals23/231.16 xG/match
14.8 shots/match▲Shots23/2311.6 shots/match
6.09 shots/match▲Shots on target23/234.17 shots/match
62.1%●Possession23/2342.4%
5.09 corners/match●Corners23/234.7 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.9 fouls/matchFouls23/2311.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Brighton & Hove Albion12 matchesCrystal Palace12 matches
2.17 goals/match▲Goals scored12/121 goals/match
1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/122 goals/match
2.03 xG/match▲Expected goals12/121.12 xG/match
17.4 shots/match▲Shots12/1211.3 shots/match
7.08 shots/match▲Shots on target12/124.25 shots/match
63.8%●Possession12/1239.5%
7.25 corners/match●Corners12/123.92 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.3 fouls/matchFouls12/1211.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.79 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 3 Feb 2024, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBrighton & Hove AlbionCrystal Palace
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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