Premier League · 2023Sat, 10 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Luton Town

WLDWD

1–3Full-time recap

Sheffield United

LLDLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Luton Town	Sheffield United
Shots	20 shots/match▲	7 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	1.88 xG/match▲	1.81 xG/match
Possession	75%●	25%
Corners	13 corners/match●	1 corners/match
Fouls	7 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Luton Town: 20 shots, 5 on target, 1.93 xG. Sheffield United: 7 shots, 3 on target, 1.88 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Luton Town 1.93 xG · Sheffield United 1.88 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Luton Town's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Sheffield United's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Luton Town's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Luton Town's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.43 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.4 goals/match	1.43 goals/match	1.51 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Sheffield United have a visible away split

moderate

Sheffield United's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

6.92 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season9.13 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	6.92 shots/match	9.13 shots/match	13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Luton Town

2Draws

1Sheffield United

26 Dec 2023Sheffield United — Luton Town · Premier League2–3

11 Mar 2023Sheffield United — Luton Town · Championship0–1

26 Aug 2022Luton Town — Sheffield United · Championship1–1

22 Jan 2022Sheffield United — Luton Town · Championship2–0

28 Aug 2021Luton Town — Sheffield United · Championship0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Luton Town favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Sheffield United in 0 · 4 too close

1.43 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 23/240.92 goals/match

1.96 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 23/242.5 goals/match

1.22 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 23/240.96 xG/match

2 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 23/242 xG/match

11.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 23/249.13 shots/match

16.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 23/2417.1 shots/match

3.61 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 23/233.09 shots/match

5.57 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 23/236.83 shots/match

40.1%●Possessionseason · 23/2436.7%

5.57 corners/match●Cornersseason · 23/243.25 corners/match

5.39 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 23/247.25 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/2412.2 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

9%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/244%

83%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 23/2463%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Luton Town12.5

Sheffield United2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Luton Town29.2

Sheffield United2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 99%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Luton Town10.8

Sheffield United2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 99%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Luton Town82.5

Sheffield United22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Luton Town67.5

Sheffield United77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Luton Town62.5

Sheffield United2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Luton Town43.8

Sheffield United21.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 99%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Luton Town23 matchesSheffield United24 matches

1.43 goals/match▲Goals scored23/240.92 goals/match

1.96 goals/match▲Goals allowed23/242.5 goals/match

1.22 xG/match▲Expected goals23/240.96 xG/match

11.8 shots/match▲Shots23/249.13 shots/match

3.61 shots/match▲Shots on target23/233.09 shots/match

40.1%●Possession23/2436.7%

5.57 corners/match●Corners23/243.25 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12 fouls/matchFouls23/2412.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Luton Town12 matchesSheffield United12 matches

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored12/120.83 goals/match

1.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/122.42 goals/match

1.45 xG/match▲Expected goals12/120.68 xG/match

13.4 shots/match▲Shots12/126.92 shots/match

4 shots/match▲Shots on target12/112.45 shots/match

42.7%●Possession12/1234.2%

6.75 corners/match●Corners12/122.67 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.3 fouls/matchFouls12/1212.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.9 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples23 / 24home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Feb 2024, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4