PitchMath
Premier League · 2023Sat, 10 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricTottenham HotspurBrighton & Hove Albion
Shots16 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Expected goals1.65 xG/match▲1.24 xG/match
Possession53%●47%
Corners9 corners/match●6 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Pape Matar Sarr · Tottenham Hotspur · 55′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDanny Welbeck · Brighton & Hove Albion · 29′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTimo Werner · Tottenham Hotspur · 53′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPierre-Emile Højbjerg · Tottenham Hotspur · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTimo Werner · Tottenham Hotspur · 22′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Bentancur · Tottenham Hotspur · 46′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRicharlison · Tottenham Hotspur · 20′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJames Maddison · Tottenham Hotspur · 48′ · 0.06 xG · on targetBrennan Johnson · Tottenham Hotspur · 66′ · 0.06 xG · on targetDanny Welbeck · Brighton & Hove Albion · 1′ · 0.07 xG · on targetRicharlison · Tottenham Hotspur · 41′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedRicharlison · Tottenham Hotspur · 36′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAnsu Fati · Brighton & Hove Albion · 76′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJames Maddison · Tottenham Hotspur · 26′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedPape Matar Sarr · Tottenham Hotspur · 58′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedKaoru Mitoma · Brighton & Hove Albion · 29′ · 0.11 xG · on targetPape Matar Sarr · Tottenham Hotspur · 61′ · 0.14 xG · goalFacundo Buonanotte · Brighton & Hove Albion · 78′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedDejan Kulusevski · Tottenham Hotspur · 38′ · 0.23 xG · on targetRicharlison · Tottenham Hotspur · 22′ · 0.31 xG · on targetBrennan Johnson · Tottenham Hotspur · 90′ · 0.35 xG · goalPascal Groß · Brighton & Hove Albion · 17′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Tottenham Hotspur: 16 shots, 6 on target, 1.72 xG. Brighton & Hove Albion: 6 shots, 3 on target, 1.27 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Pape Matar Sarr · Tottenham Hotspur · 61′Brennan Johnson · Tottenham Hotspur · 90′Pascal Groß · Brighton & Hove Albion · 17′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Tottenham Hotspur 1.72 xG · Brighton & Hove Albion 1.27 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Brighton & Hove Albion's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Brighton & Hove Albion's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Brighton & Hove Albion's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Brighton & Hove Albion's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.79 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match1.79 goals/match1.51 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Brighton & Hove Albion have a visible away split

moderate

Brighton & Hove Albion's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.5 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season14.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.5 shots/match14.5 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Tottenham Hotspur
0Draws
2Brighton & Hove Albion
Brighton & Hove Albion — Tottenham Hotspur · Premier League4–2
Tottenham Hotspur — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League2–1
Brighton & Hove Albion — Tottenham Hotspur · Premier League0–1
Tottenham Hotspur — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League0–1
Brighton & Hove Albion — Tottenham Hotspur · Premier League0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Tottenham Hotspur favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Brighton & Hove Albion in 3 · 5 too close

2.13 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 24/241.79 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 24/241.67 goals/match
1.76 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 24/241.68 xG/match
1.74 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 24/24▲1.52 xG/match
15.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 24/2414.5 shots/match
13.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 24/24▲12.3 shots/match
6 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 24/245.96 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 24/244.5 shots/match
59.8%Possessionseason · 24/24●61.5%
5.79 corners/match●Cornersseason · 24/245.13 corners/match
6.71 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 24/24▲4.17 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 24/2411 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
21%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 24/248%
100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 24/2483%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Tottenham Hotspur77.5
Brighton & Hove Albion92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Tottenham Hotspur83.3
Brighton & Hove Albion74.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Tottenham Hotspur63.3
Brighton & Hove Albion61.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Tottenham Hotspur47.5
Brighton & Hove Albion12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Tottenham Hotspur50
Brighton & Hove Albion50
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Tottenham Hotspur67.5
Brighton & Hove Albion47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Tottenham Hotspur71.9
Brighton & Hove Albion63.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Tottenham Hotspur24 matchesBrighton & Hove Albion24 matches
2.13 goals/match▲Goals scored24/241.79 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed24/241.67 goals/match
1.76 xG/matchExpected goals24/241.68 xG/match
15.8 shots/match▲Shots24/2414.5 shots/match
6 shots/matchShots on target24/245.96 shots/match
59.8%Possession24/24●61.5%
5.79 corners/match●Corners24/245.13 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11 fouls/matchFouls24/2411 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Tottenham Hotspur12 matchesBrighton & Hove Albion12 matches
2.08 goals/match▲Goals scored12/121.42 goals/match
1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/122.08 goals/match
2.08 xG/match▲Expected goals12/121.34 xG/match
18 shots/match▲Shots12/1211.5 shots/match
7 shots/match▲Shots on target12/124.83 shots/match
59.3%●Possession12/1259.2%
6.33 corners/match●Corners12/123 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.8 fouls/matchFouls12/1210.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples24 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Feb 2024, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsTottenham HotspurBrighton & Hove Albion
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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Tottenham Hotspur vs Brighton & Hove Albion — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath