PitchMath
Premier League · 2023Sat, 3 Feb 2024, 17:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
0–5Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricSheffield UnitedAston Villa
Shots10 shots/match14 shots/match▲
Shots on target5 shots/match10 shots/match▲
Expected goals1.48 xG/match2.19 xG/match▲
Possession36%64%●
Corners3 corners/match4 corners/match●
Fouls10 fouls/match7 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Douglas Luiz · Aston Villa · 6′ · 0.01 xG · on targetJayden Bogle · Sheffield United · 51′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJohn McGinn · Aston Villa · 5′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLeon Bailey · Aston Villa · 11′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTom Davies · Sheffield United · 76′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLeon Bailey · Aston Villa · 20′ · 0.05 xG · goalGustavo Hamer · Sheffield United · 89′ · 0.05 xG · on targetYouri Tielemans · Aston Villa · 30′ · 0.08 xG · goalYouri Tielemans · Aston Villa · 29′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 16′ · 0.10 xG · goalOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 32′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedEzri Konsa · Aston Villa · 25′ · 0.11 xG · on targetBen Brereton Díaz · Sheffield United · 10′ · 0.12 xG · on targetCameron Archer · Sheffield United · 89′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedJack Robinson · Sheffield United · 77′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedJack Robinson · Sheffield United · 77′ · 0.16 xG · on targetMorgan Rogers · Aston Villa · 85′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedMason Holgate · Sheffield United · 25′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedÁlex Moreno · Aston Villa · 47′ · 0.20 xG · goalMoussa Diaby · Aston Villa · 72′ · 0.21 xG · on targetMason Holgate · Sheffield United · 77′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 12′ · 0.37 xG · on targetAnel Ahmedhodžić · Sheffield United · 77′ · 0.61 xG · on targetJohn McGinn · Aston Villa · 12′ · 0.94 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Sheffield United: 10 shots, 4 on target, 1.71 xG. Aston Villa: 14 shots, 9 on target, 2.49 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′John McGinn · Aston Villa · 12′Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa · 16′Leon Bailey · Aston Villa · 20′Youri Tielemans · Aston Villa · 30′Álex Moreno · Aston Villa · 47′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Sheffield United 1.71 xG · Aston Villa 2.49 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Sheffield United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Sheffield United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Sheffield United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Sheffield United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.83 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.83 goals/match1.49 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Sheffield United show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Sheffield United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

9.22 shots/match▲ShotsSheffield United · Aston Villa14.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricSheffield UnitedAston VillaBaseline
Shots9.22 shots/match14.6 shots/match13.2 shots/match
Shots against17 shots/match10.2 shots/match13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Sheffield United, Aston Villa.

3.9 days▲Rest daysSheffield United · Aston Villa3.89 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricSheffield UnitedAston VillaBaseline
Rest days3.9 days3.89 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches1 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Sheffield United
1Draws
0Aston Villa
Aston Villa — Sheffield United · Premier League1–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Sheffield United favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 11 · 2 too close

0.83 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 23/23▲2.13 goals/match
2.57 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 23/23▲1.3 goals/match
0.92 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 23/23▲1.81 xG/match
2 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 23/23▲1.35 xG/match
9.22 shots/matchShotsseason · 23/23▲14.6 shots/match
17 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 23/23▲10.2 shots/match
3.09 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 22/23▲5.57 shots/match
6.91 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 22/23▲4.26 shots/match
37.2%Possessionseason · 23/23●56.1%
3.35 corners/matchCornersseason · 23/23●6.13 corners/match
7 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 23/23▲4.09 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
12.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/2311 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
4%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/23▲26%
61%Scoring frequencyseason · 23/23▲87%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Sheffield United2.5
Aston Villa67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Sheffield United2.5
Aston Villa78.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 99%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Sheffield United2.5
Aston Villa81.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 99%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Sheffield United27.5
Aston Villa37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Sheffield United72.5
Aston Villa47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Sheffield United2.5
Aston Villa77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Sheffield United20
Aston Villa68.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 99%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Sheffield United23 matchesAston Villa23 matches
0.83 goals/matchGoals scored23/23▲2.13 goals/match
2.57 goals/matchGoals allowed23/23▲1.3 goals/match
0.92 xG/matchExpected goals23/23▲1.81 xG/match
9.22 shots/matchShots23/23▲14.6 shots/match
3.09 shots/matchShots on target22/23▲5.57 shots/match
37.2%Possession23/23●56.1%
3.35 corners/matchCorners23/23●6.13 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.2 fouls/matchFouls23/2311 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Sheffield United12 matchesAston Villa12 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲1.58 goals/match
2.58 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲1.58 goals/match
1.25 xG/matchExpected goals12/12▲1.5 xG/match
11.3 shots/matchShots12/12▲14 shots/match
3.67 shots/matchShots on target12/12▲5.08 shots/match
39.2%Possession12/12●54.6%
3.83 corners/matchCorners12/12●6.75 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.9 fouls/matchFouls12/1210.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.89 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 3 Feb 2024, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsSheffield UnitedAston Villa
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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