PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Nottingham Forest 2–3 Newcastle United · Premier League

2–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Newcastle United won 2–3.

Shots
137
Shots on target
35
Expected goals
1.50.48
Possession
38%62%

Full time

What the match recorded

Newcastle United beat Nottingham Forest 3–2. Recorded in this match (Nottingham Forest – Newcastle United): shots 13–7, shots on target 3–5, expected goals 1.5–0.48, possession 38%–62%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Newcastle United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Newcastle United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.13 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.8 goals/match2.13 goals/match1.51 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Newcastle United have a visible away split

moderate

Newcastle United's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11 shots/match13.9 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Newcastle United have recorded the higher season possession share.

40.2%PossessionNottingham Forest · Newcastle United● 53.1%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricNottingham ForestNewcastle UnitedBaseline
Possession40.2%53.1%49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots7 shotsNottingham Forest 13 shots, Newcastle United 7 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots5 shotsNottingham Forest 3 shots, Newcastle United 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.5 xG0.48 xGNottingham Forest 1.5 xG, Newcastle United 0.48 xG
  • Possession38%62%Nottingham Forest 38%, Newcastle United 62%
  • Corners4 corners4 cornersNottingham Forest 4 corners, Newcastle United 4 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls6 foulsNottingham Forest 9 fouls, Newcastle United 6 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Fabian Schär · Newcastle United · 21′ · 0.01 xG · on targetSean Longstaff · Newcastle United · 8′ · 0.02 xG · on targetRyan Yates · Nottingham Forest · 46′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Gordon · Newcastle United · 65′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 79′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCallum Hudson Odoi · Nottingham Forest · 45′ · 0.03 xG · goalNicolás Domínguez · Nottingham Forest · 75′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Gordon · Newcastle United · 5′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNuno Tavares · Nottingham Forest · 54′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNuno Tavares · Nottingham Forest · 73′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNicolás Domínguez · Nottingham Forest · 76′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedGiovanni Reyna · Nottingham Forest · 79′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDivock Origi · Nottingham Forest · 75′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedFabian Schär · Newcastle United · 43′ · 0.10 xG · goalBruno Guimarães · Newcastle United · 66′ · 0.10 xG · goalBruno Guimarães · Newcastle United · 10′ · 0.20 xG · goalMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 5′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Elanga · Nottingham Forest · 17′ · 0.36 xG · on targetAnthony Elanga · Nottingham Forest · 26′ · 0.43 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nottingham Forest: 13 shots, 3 on target, 1.48 xG. Newcastle United: 7 shots, 5 on target, 0.49 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Anthony Elanga · Nottingham Forest · 26′Callum Hudson Odoi · Nottingham Forest · 45′Bruno Guimarães · Newcastle United · 10′Fabian Schär · Newcastle United · 43′Bruno Guimarães · Newcastle United · 66′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nottingham Forest 1.48 xG · Newcastle United 0.49 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Nottingham Forest
0Draws
2Newcastle United
Newcastle United — Nottingham Forest · Premier League1–3
Nottingham Forest — Newcastle United · Premier League1–2
Newcastle United — Nottingham Forest · Premier League2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Nottingham Forest favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · Newcastle United in 8

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Nottingham Forest24 matchesNewcastle United24 matches
1.25 goals/matchGoals scored24/24▲ 2.13 goals/match
1.83 goals/matchGoals allowed24/24▲ 1.63 goals/match
1.16 xG/matchExpected goals24/24▲ 1.94 xG/match
10.9 shots/matchShots24/24▲ 13.9 shots/match
3.42 shots/matchShots on target24/24▲ 5.38 shots/match
40.2%Possession24/24● 53.1%
3.75 corners/matchCorners24/24● 4.92 corners/match
11.1 fouls/matchFouls24/2410.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples24 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Feb 2024, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNottingham ForestNewcastle United
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
Head-to-headNottingham Forest — Newcastle United
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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