Premier League · 2023Sat, 10 Feb 2024, 17:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Nottingham Forest

WWLLD

2–3Full-time recap

Newcastle United

LLLWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Newcastle United
Shots	13 shots/match▲	7 shots/match
Shots on target	3 shots/match	5 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.5 xG/match▲	0.48 xG/match
Possession	38%	62%●
Corners	4 corners/match	4 corners/match
Fouls	9 fouls/match	6 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Nottingham Forest: 13 shots, 3 on target, 1.48 xG. Newcastle United: 7 shots, 5 on target, 0.49 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nottingham Forest 1.48 xG · Newcastle United 0.49 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Newcastle United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Newcastle United's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Newcastle United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Newcastle United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.13 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.8 goals/match	2.13 goals/match	1.51 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Newcastle United have a visible away split

moderate

Newcastle United's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.9 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	11 shots/match	13.9 shots/match	13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Newcastle United have recorded the higher season possession share.

40.2%PossessionNottingham Forest · Newcastle United●53.1%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.0 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Newcastle United	Baseline
Possession	40.2%	53.1%	49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Nottingham Forest

0Draws

2Newcastle United

26 Dec 2023Newcastle United — Nottingham Forest · Premier League1–3

17 Mar 2023Nottingham Forest — Newcastle United · Premier League1–2

6 Aug 2022Newcastle United — Nottingham Forest · Premier League2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Nottingham Forest favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Newcastle United in 8 · 2 too close

1.25 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 24/24▲2.13 goals/match

1.83 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 24/24▲1.63 goals/match

1.16 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 24/24▲1.94 xG/match

1.46 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 24/241.76 xG/match

10.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 24/24▲13.9 shots/match

13.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 24/2414.2 shots/match

3.42 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 24/24▲5.38 shots/match

4.75 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 24/245.38 shots/match

40.2%Possessionseason · 24/24●53.1%

3.75 corners/matchCornersseason · 24/24●4.92 corners/match

6.63 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 24/24▲5.13 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 24/2410.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

13%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 24/24▲29%

75%Scoring frequencyseason · 24/24▲83%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nottingham Forest17.5

Newcastle United62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nottingham Forest15

Newcastle United70

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nottingham Forest49.2

Newcastle United35.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nottingham Forest52.5

Newcastle United37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest57.5

Newcastle United27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest7.5

Newcastle United37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nottingham Forest21.9

Newcastle United48.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Nottingham Forest24 matchesNewcastle United24 matches

1.25 goals/matchGoals scored24/24▲2.13 goals/match

1.83 goals/matchGoals allowed24/24▲1.63 goals/match

1.16 xG/matchExpected goals24/24▲1.94 xG/match

10.9 shots/matchShots24/24▲13.9 shots/match

3.42 shots/matchShots on target24/24▲5.38 shots/match

40.2%Possession24/24●53.1%

3.75 corners/matchCorners24/24●4.92 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.1 fouls/matchFouls24/2410.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Nottingham Forest12 matchesNewcastle United12 matches

1.42 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲1.83 goals/match

1.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/122.08 goals/match

1.13 xG/matchExpected goals12/12▲1.55 xG/match

12.3 shots/match▲Shots12/1211 shots/match

3.42 shots/matchShots on target12/12▲4.33 shots/match

42.2%Possession12/12●52.2%

4 corners/matchCorners12/12●4.25 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.2 fouls/matchFouls12/1211 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.15 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.1 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples24 / 24home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Feb 2024, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4