PitchMath
Premier League · 2023Sat, 17 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
2–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNewcastle UnitedBournemouth
Shots17 shots/match▲12 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match7 shots/match▲
Expected goals2.23 xG/match▲2.22 xG/match
Possession63%●37%
Corners4 corners/match●2 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match23 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Marcos Senesi · Bournemouth · 2′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBruno Guimarães · Newcastle United · 77′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Tavernier · Bournemouth · 16′ · 0.02 xG · on targetFabian Schär · Newcastle United · 40′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJustin Kluivert · Bournemouth · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlex Scott · Bournemouth · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHarvey Barnes · Newcastle United · 40′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJustin Kluivert · Bournemouth · 60′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMiguel Almirón · Newcastle United · 61′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLewis Cook · Bournemouth · 81′ · 0.03 xG · on targetBruno Guimarães · Newcastle United · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetDango Ouattara · Bournemouth · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedHarvey Barnes · Newcastle United · 17′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Gordon · Newcastle United · 21′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFabian Schär · Newcastle United · 83′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Gordon · Newcastle United · 28′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMiguel Almirón · Newcastle United · 38′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 69′ · 0.05 xG · goalMiguel Almirón · Newcastle United · 21′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Tavernier · Bournemouth · 65′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDan Burn · Newcastle United · 67′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJacob Murphy · Newcastle United · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMiguel Almirón · Newcastle United · 49′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Gordon · Newcastle United · 5′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedDominic Solanke · Bournemouth · 16′ · 0.42 xG · on targetMatt Ritchie · Newcastle United · 90′ · 0.59 xG · goalDominic Solanke · Bournemouth · 24′ · 0.68 xG · on targetDominic Solanke · Bournemouth · 51′ · 0.79 xG · goalAnthony Gordon · Newcastle United · 58′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Newcastle United: 17 shots, 5 on target, 2.24 xG. Bournemouth: 12 shots, 6 on target, 2.17 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Anthony Gordon · Newcastle United · 58′Matt Ritchie · Newcastle United · 90′Dominic Solanke · Bournemouth · 51′Antoine Semenyo · Bournemouth · 69′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Newcastle United 2.24 xG · Bournemouth 2.17 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Newcastle United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Newcastle United's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Newcastle United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Newcastle United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.12 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.8 goals/match2.12 goals/match1.45 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Newcastle United have a visible home split

moderate

Newcastle United's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.8 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season14 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.8 shots/match14 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Newcastle United have recorded the higher season possession share.

53.5%●PossessionNewcastle United · Bournemouth43.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricNewcastle UnitedBournemouthBaseline
Possession53.5%43.9%49%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Newcastle United
2Draws
1Bournemouth
Bournemouth — Newcastle United · Premier League2–0
Bournemouth — Newcastle United · Premier League1–1
Newcastle United — Bournemouth · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Newcastle United favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Bournemouth in 1 · 5 too close

2.12 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 25/241.38 goals/match
1.64 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 25/241.92 goals/match
1.95 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 25/241.47 xG/match
1.78 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 25/24▲1.62 xG/match
14 shots/matchShotsseason · 25/2413.4 shots/match
14.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 25/2414.4 shots/match
5.36 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 25/244.63 shots/match
5.44 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 25/245.29 shots/match
53.5%●Possessionseason · 25/2443.9%
4.88 corners/matchCornersseason · 25/24●6.21 corners/match
5 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 25/245.67 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
10.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 25/2413.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
28%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 25/2421%
84%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 25/2479%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Newcastle United62.5
Bournemouth32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Newcastle United70.8
Bournemouth48.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Newcastle United35.8
Bournemouth24.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Newcastle United32.5
Bournemouth87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Newcastle United27.5
Bournemouth97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Newcastle United37.5
Bournemouth77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Newcastle United48.8
Bournemouth71.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Newcastle United25 matchesBournemouth24 matches
2.12 goals/match▲Goals scored25/241.38 goals/match
1.64 goals/match▲Goals allowed25/241.92 goals/match
1.95 xG/match▲Expected goals25/241.47 xG/match
14 shots/matchShots25/2413.4 shots/match
5.36 shots/match▲Shots on target25/244.63 shots/match
53.5%●Possession25/2443.9%
4.88 corners/matchCorners25/24●6.21 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.4 fouls/matchFouls25/2413.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Newcastle United13 matchesBournemouth13 matches
2.38 goals/match▲Goals scored13/131.62 goals/match
1.23 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/132.23 goals/match
2.32 xG/match▲Expected goals13/131.61 xG/match
16.8 shots/match▲Shots13/1314.2 shots/match
6.31 shots/match▲Shots on target13/134.92 shots/match
54.8%●Possession13/1344.7%
5.46 corners/matchCorners13/13●5.77 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9.92 fouls/matchFouls13/1313.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples25 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 17 Feb 2024, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNewcastle UnitedBournemouth
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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Newcastle United vs Bournemouth — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath