PitchMath
Premier League · 2023Sat, 17 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Fulham

WLDDW
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFulhamAston Villa
Shots15 shots/match▲12 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Expected goals1.55 xG/match1.61 xG/match▲
Possession52%●48%
Corners4 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match6 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Andreas Pereira · Fulham · 27′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLeon Bailey · Aston Villa · 28′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHarry Wilson · Fulham · 79′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJacob Ramsey · Aston Villa · 11′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIssa Diop · Fulham · 55′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJoão Palhinha · Fulham · 88′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Muniz · Fulham · 39′ · 0.04 xG · on targetLeon Bailey · Aston Villa · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Muniz · Fulham · 9′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 40′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLeon Bailey · Aston Villa · 62′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedClément Lenglet · Aston Villa · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Muniz · Fulham · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Muniz · Fulham · 88′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Muniz · Fulham · 15′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 65′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 45′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Muniz · Fulham · 63′ · 0.09 xG · goalRodrigo Muniz · Fulham · 69′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Muniz · Fulham · 69′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedBobby De Cordova-Reid · Fulham · 4′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedJacob Ramsey · Aston Villa · 63′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 56′ · 0.22 xG · goalAlex Iwobi · Fulham · 79′ · 0.30 xG · on targetYouri Tielemans · Aston Villa · 45′ · 0.40 xG · on targetOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 23′ · 0.42 xG · goalAdama Traoré · Fulham · 90′ · 0.50 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Fulham: 15 shots, 4 on target, 1.58 xG. Aston Villa: 12 shots, 3 on target, 1.58 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Rodrigo Muniz · Fulham · 63′Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa · 23′Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa · 56′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Fulham 1.58 xG · Aston Villa 1.58 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Fulham's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Fulham's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Fulham's recent record differs from the season

weak

Fulham's last-five shots average is above their season average.

15.2 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots15.2 shots/match12.2 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Fulham have a visible home split

moderate

Fulham's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.8 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.8 shots/match12.2 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Fulham show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Fulham's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.2 shots/match▲ShotsFulham · Aston Villa14.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFulhamAston VillaBaseline
Shots12.2 shots/match14.8 shots/match13.2 shots/match
Shots against13.9 shots/match10.6 shots/match14 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Fulham
0Draws
2Aston Villa
Aston Villa — Fulham · Premier League3–1
Aston Villa — Fulham · Premier League1–0
Fulham — Aston Villa · Premier League3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Fulham favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 10 · 3 too close

1.36 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 25/25▲2.08 goals/match
1.64 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 25/25▲1.32 goals/match
1.27 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 25/25▲1.83 xG/match
1.79 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 25/25▲1.38 xG/match
12.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 25/25▲14.8 shots/match
13.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 25/25▲10.6 shots/match
4.44 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 25/25▲5.64 shots/match
5.12 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 25/25▲4.28 shots/match
51%Possessionseason · 25/25●55.8%
5.44 corners/matchCornersseason · 25/25●6.2 corners/match
4.68 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 25/25▲4.24 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
9.68 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 25/2510.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
24%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 25/2524%
60%Scoring frequencyseason · 25/25▲88%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Fulham52.5
Aston Villa67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Fulham34.2
Aston Villa75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Fulham49.2
Aston Villa82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Fulham17.5
Aston Villa42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Fulham12.5
Aston Villa32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Fulham57.5
Aston Villa72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Fulham36.2
Aston Villa63.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Fulham25 matchesAston Villa25 matches
1.36 goals/matchGoals scored25/25▲2.08 goals/match
1.64 goals/matchGoals allowed25/25▲1.32 goals/match
1.27 xG/matchExpected goals25/25▲1.83 xG/match
12.2 shots/matchShots25/25▲14.8 shots/match
4.44 shots/matchShots on target25/25▲5.64 shots/match
51%Possession25/25●55.8%
5.44 corners/matchCorners25/25●6.2 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9.68 fouls/matchFouls25/2510.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Fulham13 matchesAston Villa13 matches
1.77 goals/match▲Goals scored13/131.62 goals/match
1.15 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/131.54 goals/match
1.61 xG/match▲Expected goals13/131.51 xG/match
14.8 shots/match▲Shots13/1313.8 shots/match
4.69 shots/matchShots on target13/134.92 shots/match
58.3%●Possession13/1354.1%
6.54 corners/matchCorners13/136.54 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9.23 fouls/matchFouls13/1310.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.94 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 17 Feb 2024, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsFulhamAston Villa
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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