Premier League · 2023Sun, 11 Feb 2024, 16:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Aston Villa

LWDLW

1–2Full-time recap

Manchester United

WLDWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Aston Villa	Manchester United
Shots	23 shots/match▲	17 shots/match
Shots on target	10 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Expected goals	2.43 xG/match▲	1.79 xG/match
Possession	56%●	44%
Corners	10 corners/match●	8 corners/match
Fouls	9 fouls/match	7 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Aston Villa: 23 shots, 9 on target, 2.65 xG. Manchester United: 17 shots, 5 on target, 1.76 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Aston Villa 2.65 xG · Manchester United 1.76 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Manchester United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Manchester United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.38 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.4 goals/match	1.38 goals/match	1.49 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.29 corners/matchCornersAston Villa · Manchester United●6.33 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Aston Villa	Manchester United	Baseline
Corners	6.29 corners/match	6.33 corners/match	5.13 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Aston Villa show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Aston Villa's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.9 shots/match▲ShotsAston Villa · Manchester United14.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Aston Villa	Manchester United	Baseline
Shots	14.9 shots/match	14.3 shots/match	13.3 shots/match
Shots against	10.5 shots/match	15.8 shots/match	13.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Aston Villa

1Draws

2Manchester United

26 Dec 2023Manchester United — Aston Villa · Premier League3–2

30 Apr 2023Manchester United — Aston Villa · Premier League1–0

6 Nov 2022Aston Villa — Manchester United · Premier League3–1

15 Jan 2022Aston Villa — Manchester United · Premier League2–2

25 Sept 2021Manchester United — Aston Villa · Premier League0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Aston Villa favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Manchester United in 1 · 4 too close

2.08 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 24/241.38 goals/match

1.33 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 24/241.38 goals/match

1.84 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 24/241.5 xG/match

1.37 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 24/241.68 xG/match

14.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 24/2414.3 shots/match

10.5 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 24/2415.8 shots/match

5.75 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 24/244.58 shots/match

4.29 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 24/245.13 shots/match

56.1%●Possessionseason · 24/2451.3%

6.29 corners/matchCornersseason · 24/24●6.33 corners/match

4.25 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 24/246.54 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 24/2410.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

25%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 24/24▲29%

88%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 24/2471%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Aston Villa67.5

Manchester United57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Aston Villa74.2

Manchester United53.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Aston Villa80

Manchester United44.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Aston Villa47.5

Manchester United72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa37.5

Manchester United17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa72.5

Manchester United77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Aston Villa65

Manchester United55

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Aston Villa24 matchesManchester United24 matches

2.08 goals/match▲Goals scored24/241.38 goals/match

1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed24/241.38 goals/match

1.84 xG/match▲Expected goals24/241.5 xG/match

14.9 shots/matchShots24/2414.3 shots/match

5.75 shots/match▲Shots on target24/244.58 shots/match

56.1%●Possession24/2451.3%

6.29 corners/matchCorners24/24●6.33 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.9 fouls/matchFouls24/2410.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Aston Villa12 matchesManchester United12 matches

2.58 goals/match▲Goals scored12/121.25 goals/match

1.08 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/121.25 goals/match

2.18 xG/match▲Expected goals12/121.35 xG/match

15.8 shots/match▲Shots12/1212.6 shots/match

6.42 shots/match▲Shots on target12/124.08 shots/match

57.6%●Possession12/1248.2%

5.83 corners/match●Corners12/124.33 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.3 fouls/matchFouls12/1210.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.96 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.1 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples24 / 24home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 11 Feb 2024, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4