PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Manchester City 1–1 Chelsea · Premier League

1–1Historical match

Chelsea

WWLLW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Manchester City and Chelsea drew 1–1.

Shots
319
Shots on target
56
Expected goals
2.691.44
Possession
70%30%

Full time

What the match recorded

Manchester City and Chelsea drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Manchester City – Chelsea): shots 31–9, shots on target 5–6, expected goals 2.69–1.44, possession 70%–30%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Manchester City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Manchester City's last-five shots average is above their season average.

23.2 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season17.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots23.2 shots/match17.8 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Chelsea show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Chelsea's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

17.8 shots/match ▲ShotsManchester City · Chelsea13.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricManchester CityChelseaBaseline
Shots17.8 shots/match13.1 shots/match13.2 shots/match
Shots against7.96 shots/match14 shots/match14 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots31 shots9 shotsManchester City 31 shots, Chelsea 9 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots6 shotsManchester City 5 shots, Chelsea 6 shots
  • Expected goals2.69 xG1.44 xGManchester City 2.69 xG, Chelsea 1.44 xG
  • Possession70%30%Manchester City 70%, Chelsea 30%
  • Corners12 corners1 cornerManchester City 12 corners, Chelsea 1 corner
  • Fouls7 fouls12 foulsManchester City 7 fouls, Chelsea 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Erling Haaland · Manchester City · 28′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRodri · Manchester City · 70′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRaheem Sterling · Chelsea · 13′ · 0.02 xG · on targetPhil Foden · Manchester City · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJérémy Doku · Manchester City · 65′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKyle Walker · Manchester City · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJulián Alvarez · Manchester City · 10′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRodri · Manchester City · 16′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedErling Haaland · Manchester City · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBernardo Silva · Manchester City · 70′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJérémy Doku · Manchester City · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJulián Alvarez · Manchester City · 2′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKyle Walker · Manchester City · 83′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJérémy Doku · Manchester City · 33′ · 0.05 xG · on targetJulián Alvarez · Manchester City · 42′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPhil Foden · Manchester City · 43′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKevin De Bruyne · Manchester City · 48′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBernardo Silva · Manchester City · 80′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRodri · Manchester City · 62′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedErling Haaland · Manchester City · 65′ · 0.06 xG · on targetRodri · Manchester City · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRúben Dias · Manchester City · 10′ · 0.07 xG · on targetChristopher Nkunku · Chelsea · 90′ · 0.07 xG · on targetJulián Alvarez · Manchester City · 24′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedErling Haaland · Manchester City · 90′ · 0.08 xG · on targetPhil Foden · Manchester City · 61′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedBen Chilwell · Chelsea · 56′ · 0.10 xG · on targetJulián Alvarez · Manchester City · 45′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedConor Gallagher · Chelsea · 52′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedRodri · Manchester City · 83′ · 0.12 xG · goalErling Haaland · Manchester City · 45′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedRaheem Sterling · Chelsea · 42′ · 0.14 xG · goalChristopher Nkunku · Chelsea · 66′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedEnzo Fernández · Chelsea · 66′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedErling Haaland · Manchester City · 12′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedErling Haaland · Manchester City · 61′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedRaheem Sterling · Chelsea · 56′ · 0.32 xG · on targetNicolas Jackson · Chelsea · 23′ · 0.38 xG · on targetErling Haaland · Manchester City · 51′ · 0.38 xG · off target or blockedErling Haaland · Manchester City · 78′ · 0.40 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Manchester City: 31 shots, 5 on target, 2.73 xG. Chelsea: 9 shots, 6 on target, 1.47 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Rodri · Manchester City · 83′Raheem Sterling · Chelsea · 42′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Manchester City 2.73 xG · Chelsea 1.47 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

4Manchester City
1Draws
0Chelsea
Chelsea — Manchester City · Premier League4–4
Manchester City — Chelsea · Premier League1–0
Chelsea — Manchester City · Premier League0–1
Manchester City — Chelsea · Premier League1–0
Chelsea — Manchester City · Premier League0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Manchester City favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · Chelsea in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Manchester City24 matchesChelsea25 matches
2.38 goals/match ▲Goals scored24/251.68 goals/match
1.08 goals/match ▲Goals allowed24/251.64 goals/match
2.03 xG/match ▲Expected goals24/251.89 xG/match
17.8 shots/match ▲Shots24/2513.1 shots/match
7 shots/match ▲Shots on target23/254.92 shots/match
65.6% ●Possession24/2558.6%
7.58 corners/match ●Corners24/255.04 corners/match
8.25 fouls/matchFouls24/2512.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples24 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 17 Feb 2024, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsManchester CityChelsea
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
Head-to-headManchester City — Chelsea
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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