Premier League · 2023Sat, 17 Feb 2024, 17:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Manchester City

WWWWW

1–1Full-time recap

Chelsea

WWLLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Manchester City	Chelsea
Shots	31 shots/match▲	9 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match	6 shots/match▲
Expected goals	2.69 xG/match▲	1.44 xG/match
Possession	70%●	30%
Corners	12 corners/match●	1 corners/match
Fouls	7 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Manchester City: 31 shots, 5 on target, 2.73 xG. Chelsea: 9 shots, 6 on target, 1.47 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Manchester City 2.73 xG · Chelsea 1.47 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester City's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Chelsea's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Manchester City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Manchester City's last-five shots average is above their season average.

23.2 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season17.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	23.2 shots/match	17.8 shots/match	13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Chelsea show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Chelsea's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

17.8 shots/match▲ShotsManchester City · Chelsea13.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Manchester City	Chelsea	Baseline
Shots	17.8 shots/match	13.1 shots/match	13.2 shots/match
Shots against	7.96 shots/match	14 shots/match	14 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

4Manchester City

1Draws

0Chelsea

12 Nov 2023Chelsea — Manchester City · Premier League4–4

21 May 2023Manchester City — Chelsea · Premier League1–0

5 Jan 2023Chelsea — Manchester City · Premier League0–1

15 Jan 2022Manchester City — Chelsea · Premier League1–0

25 Sept 2021Chelsea — Manchester City · Premier League0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Manchester City favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Chelsea in 0 · 2 too close

2.38 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 24/251.68 goals/match

1.08 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 24/251.64 goals/match

2.03 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 24/251.89 xG/match

0.98 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 24/251.53 xG/match

17.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 24/2513.1 shots/match

7.96 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 24/2514 shots/match

7 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 23/254.92 shots/match

3.09 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 23/255.2 shots/match

65.6%●Possessionseason · 24/2558.6%

7.58 corners/match●Cornersseason · 24/255.04 corners/match

3.67 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 24/255.16 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

8.25 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 24/2512.6 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

25%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 24/2520%

92%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 24/2580%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester City97.5

Chelsea72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester City95.8

Chelsea57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 99%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester City92.5

Chelsea43.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 99%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester City47.5

Chelsea2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester City2.5

Chelsea87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester City97.5

Chelsea47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester City72.5

Chelsea61.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 99%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Manchester City24 matchesChelsea25 matches

2.38 goals/match▲Goals scored24/251.68 goals/match

1.08 goals/match▲Goals allowed24/251.64 goals/match

2.03 xG/match▲Expected goals24/251.89 xG/match

17.8 shots/match▲Shots24/2513.1 shots/match

7 shots/match▲Shots on target23/254.92 shots/match

65.6%●Possession24/2558.6%

7.58 corners/match●Corners24/255.04 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

8.25 fouls/matchFouls24/2512.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Manchester City12 matchesChelsea13 matches

2.5 goals/match▲Goals scored12/131.69 goals/match

0.92 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/131.77 goals/match

1.76 xG/matchExpected goals12/131.69 xG/match

16.1 shots/match▲Shots12/1312.2 shots/match

5.18 shots/matchShots on target11/135 shots/match

65.9%●Possession12/1358%

7.67 corners/match●Corners12/134.38 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

8.58 fouls/matchFouls12/1313.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.21 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.9 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples24 / 25home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 17 Feb 2024, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4