PitchMath
Premier League · 2023Tue, 20 Feb 2024, 19:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricManchester CityBrentford
Shots25 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Shots on target11 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Expected goals2.45 xG/match▲0.35 xG/match
Possession70%●30%
Corners10 corners/match●1 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match6 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Sergio Reguilón · Brentford · 11′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFrank Onyeka · Brentford · 1′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedManuel Akanji · Manchester City · 35′ · 0.02 xG · on targetErling Haaland · Manchester City · 3′ · 0.03 xG · on targetPhil Foden · Manchester City · 8′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedManuel Akanji · Manchester City · 39′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJohn Stones · Manchester City · 45′ · 0.03 xG · on targetIvan Toney · Brentford · 73′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedErling Haaland · Manchester City · 84′ · 0.03 xG · on targetPhil Foden · Manchester City · 36′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPhil Foden · Manchester City · 88′ · 0.04 xG · on targetPhil Foden · Manchester City · 7′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJulián Alvarez · Manchester City · 17′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedIvan Toney · Brentford · 19′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJulián Alvarez · Manchester City · 28′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRúben Dias · Manchester City · 36′ · 0.05 xG · on targetRodri · Manchester City · 51′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRodri · Manchester City · 58′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPhil Foden · Manchester City · 69′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJulián Alvarez · Manchester City · 26′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedErling Haaland · Manchester City · 9′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedFrank Onyeka · Brentford · 43′ · 0.09 xG · on targetErling Haaland · Manchester City · 90′ · 0.11 xG · on targetRúben Dias · Manchester City · 44′ · 0.12 xG · on targetFrank Onyeka · Brentford · 16′ · 0.15 xG · on targetJohn Stones · Manchester City · 36′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedPhil Foden · Manchester City · 90′ · 0.21 xG · on targetOscar Bobb · Manchester City · 37′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedBernardo Silva · Manchester City · 34′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedErling Haaland · Manchester City · 30′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedErling Haaland · Manchester City · 71′ · 0.31 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Manchester City: 25 shots, 10 on target, 2.44 xG. Brentford: 6 shots, 2 on target, 0.35 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Erling Haaland · Manchester City · 71′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Manchester City 2.44 xG · Brentford 0.35 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Manchester City, Brentford. A second useful context is: Manchester City's last-five shots average is above their season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Manchester City, Brentford.

3.08 days▲Rest daysManchester City · Brentford3.29 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricManchester CityBrentfordBaseline
Rest days3.08 days3.29 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Manchester City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Manchester City's last-five shots average is above their season average.

22.8 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season18.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots22.8 shots/match18.1 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Brentford show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Brentford's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

18.1 shots/match▲ShotsManchester City · Brentford12.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricManchester CityBrentfordBaseline
Shots18.1 shots/match12.6 shots/match13.2 shots/match
Shots against7.88 shots/match14.5 shots/match14 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Manchester City
0Draws
2Brentford
Brentford — Manchester City · Premier League1–3
Brentford — Manchester City · Premier League1–0
Manchester City — Brentford · Premier League1–2
Manchester City — Brentford · Premier League2–0
Brentford — Manchester City · Premier League0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Manchester City favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Brentford in 0 · 2 too close

2.32 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 25/251.4 goals/match
1.04 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 25/251.76 goals/match
2.04 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 25/251.67 xG/match
0.96 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 25/251.53 xG/match
18.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 25/2512.6 shots/match
7.88 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 25/2514.5 shots/match
7.17 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 24/254.36 shots/match
3.04 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 24/255.16 shots/match
65.8%●Possessionseason · 25/2545.2%
7.68 corners/match●Cornersseason · 25/254.6 corners/match
3.56 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 25/256.04 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
8.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 25/2510.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
28%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 25/2516%
92%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 25/2580%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester City97.5
Brentford42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester City93.3
Brentford39.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 99%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester City92.5
Brentford31.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 99%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester City47.5
Brentford67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester City2.5
Brentford17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester City97.5
Brentford25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester City72.5
Brentford30
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 99%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Manchester City25 matchesBrentford25 matches
2.32 goals/match▲Goals scored25/251.4 goals/match
1.04 goals/match▲Goals allowed25/251.76 goals/match
2.04 xG/match▲Expected goals25/251.67 xG/match
18.1 shots/match▲Shots25/2512.6 shots/match
7.17 shots/match▲Shots on target24/254.36 shots/match
65.8%●Possession25/2545.2%
7.68 corners/match●Corners25/254.6 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
8.4 fouls/matchFouls25/2510.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Manchester City13 matchesBrentford12 matches
2.38 goals/match▲Goals scored13/121.08 goals/match
0.85 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/121.42 goals/match
1.81 xG/match▲Expected goals13/121.53 xG/match
16.8 shots/match▲Shots13/1210.9 shots/match
5.67 shots/match▲Shots on target12/124.08 shots/match
66.2%●Possession13/1241.7%
7.85 corners/match●Corners13/124.25 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
8.85 fouls/matchFouls13/1210.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.08 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.29 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 20 Feb 2024, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsManchester CityBrentford
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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