Premier League · 2023Wed, 21 Feb 2024, 19:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Liverpool

WWLWW

4–1Full-time recap

Luton Town

DWDLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Liverpool	Luton Town
Shots	29 shots/match▲	12 shots/match
Shots on target	13 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	3.32 xG/match▲	0.92 xG/match
Possession	61%●	39%
Corners	13 corners/match●	4 corners/match
Fouls	15 fouls/match	14 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Liverpool: 29 shots, 13 on target, 3.31 xG. Luton Town: 12 shots, 3 on target, 0.95 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Liverpool 3.31 xG · Luton Town 0.95 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Luton Town's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Liverpool's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Luton Town's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Luton Town's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.4 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.2 goals/match	1.4 goals/match	1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Liverpool show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Liverpool's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

19.3 shots/match▲ShotsLiverpool · Luton Town12.2 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Liverpool	Luton Town	Baseline
Shots	19.3 shots/match	12.2 shots/match	13.2 shots/match
Shots against	11.2 shots/match	17.1 shots/match	14 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Luton Town.

4.29 days▲Rest daysLiverpool · Luton Town3.12 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Liverpool	Luton Town	Baseline
Rest days	4.29 days	3.12 days	—
Matches last 14 days	2 matches	2 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Liverpool

1Draws

0Luton Town

5 Nov 2023Luton Town — Liverpool · Premier League1–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Liverpool favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Luton Town in 0 · 2 too close

2.42 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 26/251.4 goals/match

0.96 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 26/252.04 goals/match

2.26 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 26/251.23 xG/match

1.24 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 26/252.09 xG/match

19.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 26/2512.2 shots/match

11.2 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 26/2517.1 shots/match

7.04 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 26/253.6 shots/match

3.54 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 26/256 shots/match

60.5%●Possessionseason · 26/2540.8%

6.85 corners/match●Cornersseason · 26/255.6 corners/match

4.31 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 26/255.72 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 26/2511.9 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

31%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 26/258%

96%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 26/2584%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Liverpool82.5

Luton Town17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Liverpool95.8

Luton Town30

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Liverpool87.5

Luton Town10.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Liverpool92.5

Luton Town82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Liverpool82.5

Luton Town72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Liverpool87.5

Luton Town62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Liverpool90

Luton Town45.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Liverpool26 matchesLuton Town25 matches

2.42 goals/match▲Goals scored26/251.4 goals/match

0.96 goals/match▲Goals allowed26/252.04 goals/match

2.26 xG/match▲Expected goals26/251.23 xG/match

19.3 shots/match▲Shots26/2512.2 shots/match

7.04 shots/match▲Shots on target26/253.6 shots/match

60.5%●Possession26/2540.8%

6.85 corners/match●Corners26/255.6 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.4 fouls/matchFouls26/2511.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Liverpool13 matchesLuton Town12 matches

2.85 goals/match▲Goals scored13/121.33 goals/match

0.85 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/122.42 goals/match

2.88 xG/match▲Expected goals13/120.97 xG/match

24.5 shots/match▲Shots13/1210.2 shots/match

9.15 shots/match▲Shots on target13/123.17 shots/match

63.6%●Possession13/1237.4%

8.15 corners/match●Corners13/124.25 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.2 fouls/matchFouls13/1211.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.29 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.12 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples26 / 25home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Wed, 21 Feb 2024, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4