Aston Villa
Premier League · 2023Aston Villa 4–2 Nottingham Forest · Premier League
A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.
Match at a glance
Aston Villa won 4–2.
- Shots
- 16–10
- Shots on target
- 6–3
- Expected goals
- 3.57–2.56
- Possession
- 58%–42%
Full time
What the match recorded
Aston Villa beat Nottingham Forest 4–2. Recorded in this match (Aston Villa – Nottingham Forest): shots 16–10, shots on target 6–3, expected goals 3.57–2.56, possession 58%–42%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.
Pre-match record
What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.
Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season
weakNottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.
Window: last_5 versus season
| Metric | Last 5 | Season | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 1.6 goals/match | 1.31 goals/match | 1.42 goals/match |
Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.
Nottingham Forest show a distinct attacking-volume record
moderateNottingham Forest's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.
Window: season
| Metric | Aston Villa | Nottingham Forest | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 14.8 shots/match | 11.2 shots/match | 13.2 shots/match |
| Shots against | 10.6 shots/match | 13.2 shots/match | 14 shots/match |
Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.
The teams have contrasting possession records
strongAston Villa have recorded the higher season possession share.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 15.3 percentage points.
Window: season
| Metric | Aston Villa | Nottingham Forest | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Possession | 55.8% | 40.5% | 48.8% |
Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.
This match
Match statistics
Every shot
Shot map
Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.
- off target
- on target
- goal
- penalty
- size = xG
Aston Villa: 16 shots, 6 on target, 3.59 xG. Nottingham Forest: 10 shots, 3 on target, 2.62 xG.
How the match built
Expected-goals timeline
Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.
The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Aston Villa 3.59 xG · Nottingham Forest 2.62 xG.
History
Head-to-head
Recent meetings between these teams.
Last 5 meetings
Metric comparison
Team comparison
Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.
Season: Aston Villa favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 0
Window
Season
Window
Last 10
Window
Last 5
Window
Home–Away
Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.
Possession control
Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.
Attacking volume
Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.
Defensive resistance
Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.
Directness proxy
Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.
Physicality
Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.
Set-piece relevance
Corner volume relative to competition peers.
Tempo and pressure proxy
Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.
- Rest before fixture · Both teams: 7 days
- Matches in previous 14 days · Both teams: 2 matches
Aston Villa / Nottingham Forest
Evidence quality
How much supports this analysis
- The fixture is outside the configured active season.
- Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.
Known unknowns
- Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
- Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
- The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
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Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.