Premier League · 2023Sat, 24 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Aston Villa

DLWLW

4–2Full-time recap

Nottingham Forest

LLDLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Aston Villa	Nottingham Forest
Shots	16 shots/match▲	10 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	3.57 xG/match▲	2.56 xG/match
Possession	58%●	42%
Corners	7 corners/match●	2 corners/match
Fouls	7 fouls/match	16 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Aston Villa: 16 shots, 6 on target, 3.59 xG. Nottingham Forest: 10 shots, 3 on target, 2.62 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Aston Villa 3.59 xG · Nottingham Forest 2.62 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Nottingham Forest's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

weak

Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.31 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.6 goals/match	1.31 goals/match	1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nottingham Forest show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Nottingham Forest's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.8 shots/match▲ShotsAston Villa · Nottingham Forest11.2 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Aston Villa	Nottingham Forest	Baseline
Shots	14.8 shots/match	11.2 shots/match	13.2 shots/match
Shots against	10.6 shots/match	13.2 shots/match	14 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Aston Villa have recorded the higher season possession share.

55.8%●PossessionAston Villa · Nottingham Forest40.5%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 15.3 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Aston Villa	Nottingham Forest	Baseline
Possession	55.8%	40.5%	48.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Aston Villa

1Draws

1Nottingham Forest

5 Nov 2023Nottingham Forest — Aston Villa · Premier League2–0

8 Apr 2023Aston Villa — Nottingham Forest · Premier League2–0

10 Oct 2022Nottingham Forest — Aston Villa · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Aston Villa favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 0 · 2 too close

2.15 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 26/261.31 goals/match

1.35 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 26/261.85 goals/match

1.9 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 26/261.27 xG/match

1.42 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 26/261.51 xG/match

14.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 26/2611.2 shots/match

10.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 26/2613.2 shots/match

5.65 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 26/263.58 shots/match

4.23 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 26/264.73 shots/match

55.8%●Possessionseason · 26/2640.5%

6.23 corners/match●Cornersseason · 26/263.73 corners/match

4.15 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 26/266.46 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 26/2611.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

23%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 26/2615%

88%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 26/2677%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Aston Villa67.5

Nottingham Forest12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Aston Villa75.8

Nottingham Forest15.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Aston Villa80.8

Nottingham Forest49.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Aston Villa42.5

Nottingham Forest52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa32.5

Nottingham Forest57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa77.5

Nottingham Forest7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Aston Villa63.8

Nottingham Forest22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Aston Villa26 matchesNottingham Forest26 matches

2.15 goals/match▲Goals scored26/261.31 goals/match

1.35 goals/match▲Goals allowed26/261.85 goals/match

1.9 xG/match▲Expected goals26/261.27 xG/match

14.8 shots/match▲Shots26/2611.2 shots/match

5.65 shots/match▲Shots on target26/263.58 shots/match

55.8%●Possession26/2640.5%

6.23 corners/match●Corners26/263.73 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.5 fouls/matchFouls26/2611.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Aston Villa13 matchesNottingham Forest13 matches

2.69 goals/match▲Goals scored13/131.15 goals/match

1.15 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/132.15 goals/match

2.28 xG/match▲Expected goals13/131.28 xG/match

15.8 shots/match▲Shots13/139.54 shots/match

6.38 shots/match▲Shots on target13/133.38 shots/match

57.6%●Possession13/1338.5%

5.92 corners/match●Corners13/133.38 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.9 fouls/matchFouls13/1312.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples26 / 26home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 24 Feb 2024, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4