Premier League · 2023Sat, 2 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Nottingham Forest

LDLWL

0–1Full-time recap

Liverpool

WLWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Liverpool
Shots	8 shots/match	22 shots/match▲
Shots on target	2 shots/match	2 shots/match
Expected goals	0.97 xG/match	2.07 xG/match▲
Possession	29%	71%●
Corners	3 corners/match	12 corners/match●
Fouls	11 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Nottingham Forest: 8 shots, 2 on target, 1.00 xG. Liverpool: 22 shots, 1 on target, 2.05 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nottingham Forest 1.00 xG · Liverpool 2.05 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Liverpool's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: Liverpool's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Liverpool have a visible away split

moderate

Liverpool's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

14.6 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season19.4 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	14.6 shots/match	19.4 shots/match	13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Liverpool show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Liverpool's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11 shots/match▲ShotsNottingham Forest · Liverpool19.4 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Liverpool	Baseline
Shots	11 shots/match	19.4 shots/match	13.3 shots/match
Shots against	13.6 shots/match	11.1 shots/match	14 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Liverpool have recorded the higher season possession share.

40.1%PossessionNottingham Forest · Liverpool●60.9%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 20.8 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Nottingham Forest	Liverpool	Baseline
Possession	40.1%	60.9%	48.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Nottingham Forest

0Draws

2Liverpool

29 Oct 2023Liverpool — Nottingham Forest · Premier League3–0

22 Apr 2023Liverpool — Nottingham Forest · Premier League3–2

22 Oct 2022Nottingham Forest — Liverpool · Premier League1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Nottingham Forest favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Liverpool in 11 · 2 too close

1.26 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 27/27▲2.37 goals/match

1.81 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 27/27▲0.93 goals/match

1.26 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 27/27▲2.25 xG/match

1.53 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 27/27▲1.23 xG/match

11 shots/matchShotsseason · 27/27▲19.4 shots/match

13.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 27/27▲11.1 shots/match

3.52 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 27/27▲6.85 shots/match

4.63 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 27/27▲3.48 shots/match

40.1%Possessionseason · 27/27●60.9%

3.7 corners/matchCornersseason · 27/27●7.04 corners/match

6.67 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 27/27▲4.26 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/2712.4 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

15%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/27▲33%

74%Scoring frequencyseason · 27/27▲96%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nottingham Forest12.5

Liverpool82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nottingham Forest15.8

Liverpool94.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nottingham Forest49.2

Liverpool87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nottingham Forest52.5

Liverpool92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest57.5

Liverpool82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest7.5

Liverpool87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nottingham Forest22.5

Liverpool90

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Nottingham Forest27 matchesLiverpool27 matches

1.26 goals/matchGoals scored27/27▲2.37 goals/match

1.81 goals/matchGoals allowed27/27▲0.93 goals/match

1.26 xG/matchExpected goals27/27▲2.25 xG/match

11 shots/matchShots27/27▲19.4 shots/match

3.52 shots/matchShots on target27/27▲6.85 shots/match

40.1%Possession27/27●60.9%

3.7 corners/matchCorners27/27●7.04 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.3 fouls/matchFouls27/2712.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Nottingham Forest14 matchesLiverpool14 matches

1.36 goals/matchGoals scored14/14▲1.93 goals/match

1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed14/14▲1 goals/match

1.24 xG/matchExpected goals14/14▲1.67 xG/match

12.4 shots/matchShots14/14▲14.6 shots/match

3.64 shots/matchShots on target14/14▲4.71 shots/match

41.6%Possession14/14●58.4%

4 corners/matchCorners14/14●6 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.4 fouls/matchFouls14/1412.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/19.81 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples27 / 27home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 2 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4