Premier League · 2023Sat, 2 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Tottenham Hotspur

DWDWL

3–1Full-time recap

Crystal Palace

WLLDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Tottenham Hotspur	Crystal Palace
Shots	14 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	1 shots/match
Expected goals	1.91 xG/match▲	0.32 xG/match
Possession	78%●	22%
Corners	11 corners/match●	1 corners/match
Fouls	7 fouls/match	16 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Tottenham Hotspur: 14 shots, 6 on target, 1.95 xG. Crystal Palace: 4 shots, 1 on target, 0.33 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Tottenham Hotspur 1.95 xG · Crystal Palace 0.33 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Tottenham Hotspur have recorded the higher season possession share. A second useful context is: Crystal Palace's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Tottenham Hotspur have recorded the higher season possession share.

60.9%●PossessionTottenham Hotspur · Crystal Palace41.2%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 19.7 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Tottenham Hotspur	Crystal Palace	Baseline
Possession	60.9%	41.2%	48.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Crystal Palace's recent record differs from the season

weak

Crystal Palace's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.19 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.4 goals/match	1.19 goals/match	1.46 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

4Tottenham Hotspur

0Draws

1Crystal Palace

27 Oct 2023Crystal Palace — Tottenham Hotspur · Premier League1–2

6 May 2023Tottenham Hotspur — Crystal Palace · Premier League1–0

4 Jan 2023Crystal Palace — Tottenham Hotspur · Premier League0–4

26 Dec 2021Tottenham Hotspur — Crystal Palace · Premier League3–0

11 Sept 2021Crystal Palace — Tottenham Hotspur · Premier League3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Tottenham Hotspur favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Crystal Palace in 4 · 3 too close

2.12 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 26/271.19 goals/match

1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 26/271.74 goals/match

1.76 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 26/271.14 xG/match

1.69 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 26/27▲1.46 xG/match

15.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 26/2711.4 shots/match

13 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 26/2712.6 shots/match

5.92 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 26/274.11 shots/match

4.46 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 26/27▲4.19 shots/match

60.9%●Possessionseason · 26/2741.2%

6.15 corners/match●Cornersseason · 26/274.74 corners/match

6.38 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 26/27▲5.07 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 26/2711.9 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

19%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 26/27▲22%

100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 26/2778%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Tottenham Hotspur87.5

Crystal Palace27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Tottenham Hotspur80

Crystal Palace20.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Tottenham Hotspur65.8

Crystal Palace63.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Tottenham Hotspur37.5

Crystal Palace57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Tottenham Hotspur42.5

Crystal Palace72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Tottenham Hotspur72.5

Crystal Palace37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Tottenham Hotspur69.4

Crystal Palace38.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Tottenham Hotspur26 matchesCrystal Palace27 matches

2.12 goals/match▲Goals scored26/271.19 goals/match

1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed26/271.74 goals/match

1.76 xG/match▲Expected goals26/271.14 xG/match

15.7 shots/match▲Shots26/2711.4 shots/match

5.92 shots/match▲Shots on target26/274.11 shots/match

60.9%●Possession26/2741.2%

6.15 corners/match●Corners26/274.74 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.7 fouls/matchFouls26/2711.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Tottenham Hotspur14 matchesCrystal Palace14 matches

2.07 goals/match▲Goals scored14/141 goals/match

1.36 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/142 goals/match

2.03 xG/match▲Expected goals14/141.04 xG/match

17.5 shots/match▲Shots14/1410.7 shots/match

6.71 shots/match▲Shots on target14/144 shots/match

61.5%●Possession14/1438.1%

6.93 corners/match●Corners14/143.86 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.3 fouls/matchFouls14/1411.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples26 / 27home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 2 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4