Premier League · 2023Sat, 9 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Crystal Palace

LLDWL

1–1Full-time recap

Luton Town

DLLLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Crystal Palace	Luton Town
Shots	21 shots/match▲	8 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	2.73 xG/match▲	0.84 xG/match
Possession	50%	50%
Corners	8 corners/match●	6 corners/match
Fouls	20 fouls/match	11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Crystal Palace: 21 shots, 4 on target, 2.77 xG. Luton Town: 8 shots, 2 on target, 0.85 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Crystal Palace 2.77 xG · Luton Town 0.85 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Luton Town's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Luton Town's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Luton Town's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Luton Town's last-five shots average is above their season average.

15.2 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	15.2 shots/match	12.1 shots/match	13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Luton Town have a visible away split

moderate

Luton Town's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	10 shots/match	12.1 shots/match	13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Crystal Palace

0Draws

1Luton Town

25 Nov 2023Luton Town — Crystal Palace · Premier League2–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Crystal Palace favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Luton Town in 2 · 4 too close

1.18 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 28/27▲1.41 goals/match

1.71 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 28/272.04 goals/match

1.19 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 28/271.24 xG/match

1.44 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 28/272.11 xG/match

11.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 28/2712.1 shots/match

12.5 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 28/2717.1 shots/match

4.11 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 28/273.59 shots/match

4.11 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 28/276 shots/match

41.5%●Possessionseason · 28/2741.4%

4.86 corners/matchCornersseason · 28/27●5.7 corners/match

5.11 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 28/275.81 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 28/2711.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

21%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 28/277%

79%Scoring frequencyseason · 28/27▲85%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Crystal Palace27.5

Luton Town22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Crystal Palace23.3

Luton Town29.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Crystal Palace64.2

Luton Town12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Crystal Palace72.5

Luton Town82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Crystal Palace75

Luton Town67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Crystal Palace37.5

Luton Town62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Crystal Palace41.2

Luton Town45

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Crystal Palace28 matchesLuton Town27 matches

1.18 goals/matchGoals scored28/27▲1.41 goals/match

1.71 goals/match▲Goals allowed28/272.04 goals/match

1.19 xG/matchExpected goals28/271.24 xG/match

11.8 shots/matchShots28/2712.1 shots/match

4.11 shots/match▲Shots on target28/273.59 shots/match

41.5%●Possession28/2741.4%

4.86 corners/matchCorners28/27●5.7 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.1 fouls/matchFouls28/2711.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Crystal Palace14 matchesLuton Town13 matches

1.36 goals/matchGoals scored14/131.31 goals/match

1.43 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/132.31 goals/match

1.35 xG/match▲Expected goals14/130.96 xG/match

12.9 shots/match▲Shots14/1310 shots/match

4.21 shots/match▲Shots on target14/133.08 shots/match

45%●Possession14/1338.4%

5.86 corners/match●Corners14/134.38 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.5 fouls/matchFouls14/1311.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.9 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples28 / 27home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 9 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4