PitchMath
Premier League · 2023Sat, 2 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
3–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNewcastle UnitedWolverhampton
Shots14 shots/match▲12 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Expected goals2.19 xG/match▲0.8 xG/match
Possession44%56%●
Corners3 corners/match5 corners/match●
Fouls8 fouls/match11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Jacob Murphy · Newcastle United · 35′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedCraig Dawson · Wolverhampton · 22′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBruno Guimarães · Newcastle United · 81′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPablo Sarabia · Wolverhampton · 89′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPablo Sarabia · Wolverhampton · 17′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlexander Isak · Newcastle United · 24′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJean-Ricner Bellegarde · Wolverhampton · 73′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMax Kilman · Wolverhampton · 86′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPablo Sarabia · Wolverhampton · 6′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJean-Ricner Bellegarde · Wolverhampton · 22′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJacob Murphy · Newcastle United · 29′ · 0.06 xG · on targetHarvey Barnes · Newcastle United · 81′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedKieran Trippier · Newcastle United · 24′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedNathan Fraser · Wolverhampton · 66′ · 0.08 xG · on targetTawanda Chirewa · Wolverhampton · 84′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedBruno Guimarães · Newcastle United · 14′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedToti Gomes · Wolverhampton · 22′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedJean-Ricner Bellegarde · Wolverhampton · 64′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedDan Burn · Newcastle United · 57′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedPablo Sarabia · Wolverhampton · 68′ · 0.16 xG · on targetTino Livramento · Newcastle United · 90′ · 0.16 xG · goalMiguel Almirón · Newcastle United · 79′ · 0.17 xG · on targetDan Burn · Newcastle United · 19′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Gordon · Newcastle United · 33′ · 0.24 xG · goalJoe Willock · Newcastle United · 56′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedAlexander Isak · Newcastle United · 14′ · 0.68 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Newcastle United: 14 shots, 6 on target, 2.23 xG. Wolverhampton: 12 shots, 3 on target, 0.82 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Alexander Isak · Newcastle United · 14′Anthony Gordon · Newcastle United · 33′Tino Livramento · Newcastle United · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Newcastle United 2.23 xG · Wolverhampton 0.82 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Newcastle United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Newcastle United's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Newcastle United's recent record differs from the season

weak

Newcastle United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.11 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.6 goals/match2.11 goals/match1.46 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Newcastle United have a visible home split

moderate

Newcastle United's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.6 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.6 shots/match13.6 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Newcastle United
2Draws
1Wolverhampton
Wolverhampton — Newcastle United · Premier League2–2
Newcastle United — Wolverhampton · Premier League2–1
Wolverhampton — Newcastle United · Premier League1–1
Newcastle United — Wolverhampton · Premier League1–0
Wolverhampton — Newcastle United · Premier League2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Newcastle United favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Wolverhampton in 1 · 6 too close

2.11 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 27/271.48 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 27/271.59 goals/match
1.89 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 27/271.39 xG/match
1.78 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 27/271.7 xG/match
13.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 27/2711.9 shots/match
14.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 27/2714 shots/match
5.3 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 27/274.33 shots/match
5.44 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 27/27▲4.93 shots/match
52.9%●Possessionseason · 27/2747.9%
4.63 corners/match●Cornersseason · 27/274.33 corners/match
5.15 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 27/275.85 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
10.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/2712.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
30%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/2719%
85%Scoring frequencyseason · 27/2781%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Newcastle United62.5
Wolverhampton47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Newcastle United65.8
Wolverhampton37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Newcastle United35.8
Wolverhampton54.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Newcastle United32.5
Wolverhampton22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Newcastle United22.5
Wolverhampton87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Newcastle United32.5
Wolverhampton17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Newcastle United45
Wolverhampton41.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Newcastle United27 matchesWolverhampton27 matches
2.11 goals/match▲Goals scored27/271.48 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed27/271.59 goals/match
1.89 xG/match▲Expected goals27/271.39 xG/match
13.6 shots/match▲Shots27/2711.9 shots/match
5.3 shots/match▲Shots on target27/274.33 shots/match
52.9%●Possession27/2747.9%
4.63 corners/match●Corners27/274.33 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.2 fouls/matchFouls27/2712.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Newcastle United14 matchesWolverhampton14 matches
2.43 goals/match▲Goals scored14/141.43 goals/match
1.14 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/141.64 goals/match
2.31 xG/match▲Expected goals14/141.41 xG/match
16.6 shots/match▲Shots14/1411.9 shots/match
6.36 shots/match▲Shots on target14/144.43 shots/match
54%●Possession14/1447%
5.29 corners/match●Corners14/143.36 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9.79 fouls/matchFouls14/1412.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.79 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.06 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 2 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNewcastle UnitedWolverhampton
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match