Premier League · 2023Sat, 24 Feb 2024, 20:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Arsenal

WWWWW

4–1Full-time recap

Newcastle United

LWDWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Arsenal	Newcastle United
Shots	18 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Shots on target	8 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	2.86 xG/match▲	0.16 xG/match
Possession	55%●	45%
Corners	9 corners/match●	0 corners/match
Fouls	15 fouls/match	6 fouls/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Arsenal's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Newcastle United's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Arsenal's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Arsenal's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.38 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	4 goals/match	2.38 goals/match	1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Newcastle United have a visible away split

moderate

Newcastle United's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.4 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	10.4 shots/match	13.6 shots/match	13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Newcastle United show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Newcastle United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

16.9 shots/match▲ShotsArsenal · Newcastle United13.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Arsenal	Newcastle United	Baseline
Shots	16.9 shots/match	13.6 shots/match	13.2 shots/match
Shots against	8.42 shots/match	14.3 shots/match	14 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Arsenal

1Draws

2Newcastle United

4 Nov 2023Newcastle United — Arsenal · Premier League1–0

7 May 2023Newcastle United — Arsenal · Premier League0–2

3 Jan 2023Arsenal — Newcastle United · Premier League0–0

16 May 2022Newcastle United — Arsenal · Premier League2–0

27 Nov 2021Arsenal — Newcastle United · Premier League2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Arsenal favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Newcastle United in 0 · 3 too close

2.38 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 26/262.08 goals/match

0.88 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 26/261.73 goals/match

2.07 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 26/261.88 xG/match

0.71 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 26/261.82 xG/match

16.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 26/2613.6 shots/match

8.42 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 26/2614.3 shots/match

5.92 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 26/265.23 shots/match

2.5 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 26/265.54 shots/match

60.8%●Possessionseason · 26/2653.2%

7.58 corners/match●Cornersseason · 26/264.69 corners/match

2.69 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 26/265.15 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

9.77 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 26/2610.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

38%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 26/2627%

88%Scoring frequencyseason · 26/2685%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Arsenal87.5

Newcastle United62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Arsenal87.5

Newcastle United67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Arsenal95.8

Newcastle United32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Arsenal62.5

Newcastle United32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Arsenal12.5

Newcastle United22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Arsenal92.5

Newcastle United32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Arsenal68.8

Newcastle United46.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Arsenal26 matchesNewcastle United26 matches

2.38 goals/match▲Goals scored26/262.08 goals/match

0.88 goals/match▲Goals allowed26/261.73 goals/match

2.07 xG/match▲Expected goals26/261.88 xG/match

16.9 shots/match▲Shots26/2613.6 shots/match

5.92 shots/match▲Shots on target26/265.23 shots/match

60.8%●Possession26/2653.2%

7.58 corners/match●Corners26/264.69 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.77 fouls/matchFouls26/2610.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Arsenal13 matchesNewcastle United13 matches

2.62 goals/match▲Goals scored13/131.77 goals/match

0.92 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/132.23 goals/match

2.39 xG/match▲Expected goals13/131.44 xG/match

18 shots/match▲Shots13/1310.4 shots/match

6.92 shots/match▲Shots on target13/134.15 shots/match

59.2%●Possession13/1351.6%

8 corners/match●Corners13/133.92 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.69 fouls/matchFouls13/1310.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.21 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.21 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples26 / 26home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 25 Feb 2024, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4