PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Arsenal 4–1 Newcastle United · Premier League

Arsenal

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4–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Arsenal won 4–1.

Shots
183
Shots on target
82
Expected goals
2.860.16
Possession
55%45%

Full time

What the match recorded

Arsenal beat Newcastle United 4–1. Recorded in this match (Arsenal – Newcastle United): shots 18–3, shots on target 8–2, expected goals 2.86–0.16, possession 55%–45%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Arsenal's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Arsenal's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.38 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for4 goals/match2.38 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Newcastle United have a visible away split

moderate

Newcastle United's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.4 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.4 shots/match13.6 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Newcastle United show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Newcastle United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

16.9 shots/match ▲ShotsArsenal · Newcastle United13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricArsenalNewcastle UnitedBaseline
Shots16.9 shots/match13.6 shots/match13.2 shots/match
Shots against8.42 shots/match14.3 shots/match14 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots3 shotsArsenal 18 shots, Newcastle United 3 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots2 shotsArsenal 8 shots, Newcastle United 2 shots
  • Expected goals2.86 xG0.16 xGArsenal 2.86 xG, Newcastle United 0.16 xG
  • Possession55%45%Arsenal 55%, Newcastle United 45%
  • Corners9 corners0 cornersArsenal 9 corners, Newcastle United 0 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls6 foulsArsenal 15 fouls, Newcastle United 6 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Arsenal
1Draws
2Newcastle United
Newcastle United — Arsenal · Premier League1–0
Newcastle United — Arsenal · Premier League0–2
Arsenal — Newcastle United · Premier League0–0
Newcastle United — Arsenal · Premier League2–0
Arsenal — Newcastle United · Premier League2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Arsenal favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · Newcastle United in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Arsenal26 matchesNewcastle United26 matches
2.38 goals/match ▲Goals scored26/262.08 goals/match
0.88 goals/match ▲Goals allowed26/261.73 goals/match
2.07 xG/match ▲Expected goals26/261.88 xG/match
16.9 shots/match ▲Shots26/2613.6 shots/match
5.92 shots/match ▲Shots on target26/265.23 shots/match
60.8% ●Possession26/2653.2%
7.58 corners/match ●Corners26/264.69 corners/match
9.77 fouls/matchFouls26/2610.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 25 Feb 2024, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsArsenalNewcastle United
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
Head-to-headArsenal — Newcastle United
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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