Premier League · 2023Sat, 24 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Crystal Palace

LWLLD

3–0Full-time recap

Burnley

DLDLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Crystal Palace	Burnley
Shots	15 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	0 shots/match
Expected goals	2.4 xG/match▲	0.08 xG/match
Possession	56%●	44%
Corners	12 corners/match●	3 corners/match
Fouls	8 fouls/match	14 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Crystal Palace: 15 shots, 6 on target, 2.42 xG. Burnley: 2 shots, 0 on target, 0.08 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Crystal Palace 2.42 xG · Burnley 0.08 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Crystal Palace's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Burnley's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Crystal Palace's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Crystal Palace's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.19 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.8 goals/match	1.19 goals/match	1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Burnley have a visible away split

moderate

Burnley's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.08 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season10 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	8.08 shots/match	10 shots/match	13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Burnley show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Burnley's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.7 shots/match▲ShotsCrystal Palace · Burnley10 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Crystal Palace	Burnley	Baseline
Shots	11.7 shots/match	10 shots/match	13.2 shots/match
Shots against	12.6 shots/match	15.4 shots/match	14 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Crystal Palace

2Draws

0Burnley

4 Nov 2023Burnley — Crystal Palace · Premier League0–2

26 Feb 2022Crystal Palace — Burnley · Premier League1–1

20 Nov 2021Burnley — Crystal Palace · Premier League3–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Crystal Palace favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Burnley in 0 · 2 too close

1.19 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 26/260.96 goals/match

1.69 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 26/262.23 goals/match

1.17 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 26/260.91 xG/match

1.45 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 26/261.82 xG/match

11.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 26/2610 shots/match

12.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 26/2615.4 shots/match

4.23 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 26/263.15 shots/match

4.12 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 26/266.23 shots/match

42%Possessionseason · 26/26●45%

4.88 corners/matchCornersseason · 26/264.88 corners/match

4.85 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 26/266.46 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 26/2611.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

23%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 26/268%

77%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 26/2662%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Crystal Palace27.5

Burnley37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Crystal Palace22.5

Burnley7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Crystal Palace64.2

Burnley12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Crystal Palace72.5

Burnley2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Crystal Palace62.5

Burnley52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Crystal Palace40

Burnley40

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Crystal Palace38.1

Burnley26.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Crystal Palace26 matchesBurnley26 matches

1.19 goals/match▲Goals scored26/260.96 goals/match

1.69 goals/match▲Goals allowed26/262.23 goals/match

1.17 xG/match▲Expected goals26/260.91 xG/match

11.7 shots/match▲Shots26/2610 shots/match

4.23 shots/match▲Shots on target26/263.15 shots/match

42%Possession26/26●45%

4.88 corners/matchCorners26/264.88 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.7 fouls/matchFouls26/2611.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Crystal Palace13 matchesBurnley13 matches

1.38 goals/match▲Goals scored13/130.92 goals/match

1.46 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/132 goals/match

1.25 xG/match▲Expected goals13/130.8 xG/match

12.2 shots/match▲Shots13/138.08 shots/match

4.23 shots/match▲Shots on target13/132.92 shots/match

44.6%●Possession13/1341.4%

5.69 corners/match●Corners13/134 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.9 fouls/matchFouls13/1312.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.79 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples26 / 26home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 24 Feb 2024, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4