PitchMath
Premier League · 2023Sat, 6 Apr 2024, 11:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
2–4Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricCrystal PalaceManchester City
Shots7 shots/match18 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match8 shots/match▲
Expected goals1.08 xG/match1.91 xG/match▲
Possession25%75%●
Corners2 corners/match9 corners/match●
Fouls13 fouls/match3 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Kevin De Bruyne · Manchester City · 13′ · 0.02 xG · goalJoško Gvardiol · Manchester City · 30′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJack Grealish · Manchester City · 56′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKevin De Bruyne · Manchester City · 60′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNaouirou Ahamada · Crystal Palace · 90′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJack Grealish · Manchester City · 75′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJulián Alvarez · Manchester City · 11′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJeffrey Schlupp · Crystal Palace · 81′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJordan Ayew · Crystal Palace · 18′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJulián Alvarez · Manchester City · 34′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMatheus Nunes · Manchester City · 78′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKevin De Bruyne · Manchester City · 70′ · 0.06 xG · goalJack Grealish · Manchester City · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJulián Alvarez · Manchester City · 10′ · 0.07 xG · on targetRico Lewis · Manchester City · 39′ · 0.07 xG · on targetJordan Ayew · Crystal Palace · 38′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedOdsonne Édouard · Crystal Palace · 81′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedRodri · Manchester City · 11′ · 0.10 xG · on targetRico Lewis · Manchester City · 47′ · 0.11 xG · goalJulián Alvarez · Manchester City · 54′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blockedErling Haaland · Manchester City · 66′ · 0.30 xG · goalErling Haaland · Manchester City · 19′ · 0.33 xG · on targetJoško Gvardiol · Manchester City · 7′ · 0.35 xG · off target or blockedJean-Philippe Mateta · Crystal Palace · 4′ · 0.38 xG · goalOdsonne Édouard · Crystal Palace · 86′ · 0.40 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Crystal Palace: 7 shots, 4 on target, 1.05 xG. Manchester City: 18 shots, 8 on target, 1.97 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Jean-Philippe Mateta · Crystal Palace · 4′Odsonne Édouard · Crystal Palace · 86′Kevin De Bruyne · Manchester City · 13′Rico Lewis · Manchester City · 47′Erling Haaland · Manchester City · 66′Kevin De Bruyne · Manchester City · 70′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Crystal Palace 1.05 xG · Manchester City 1.97 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Crystal Palace, Manchester City. A second useful context is: Crystal Palace's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Crystal Palace, Manchester City.

3.7 days▲Rest daysCrystal Palace · Manchester City2.68 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricCrystal PalaceManchester CityBaseline
Rest days3.7 days2.68 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Crystal Palace show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Crystal Palace's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.3 shots/match▲ShotsCrystal Palace · Manchester City18 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricCrystal PalaceManchester CityBaseline
Shots11.3 shots/match18 shots/match13.8 shots/match
Shots against12.6 shots/match8.16 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Manchester City have recorded the higher season possession share.

41.3%PossessionCrystal Palace · Manchester City●65.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 24.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricCrystal PalaceManchester CityBaseline
Possession41.3%65.8%49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Crystal Palace
2Draws
2Manchester City
Manchester City — Crystal Palace · Premier League2–2
Crystal Palace — Manchester City · Premier League0–1
Manchester City — Crystal Palace · Premier League4–2
Crystal Palace — Manchester City · Premier League0–0
Manchester City — Crystal Palace · Premier League0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Crystal Palace favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Manchester City in 11 · 2 too close

1.16 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 31/31▲2.29 goals/match
1.74 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 31/31▲1 goals/match
1.16 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 31/31▲2.06 xG/match
1.43 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 31/31▲0.98 xG/match
11.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 31/31▲18 shots/match
12.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 31/31▲8.16 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 31/30▲7.07 shots/match
4.32 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 31/30▲3.1 shots/match
41.3%Possessionseason · 31/31●65.8%
4.71 corners/matchCornersseason · 31/31●7.65 corners/match
5.32 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 31/31▲3.55 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
12.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 31/318.03 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
19%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 31/31▲29%
77%Scoring frequencyseason · 31/31▲90%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Crystal Palace22.5
Manchester City97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Crystal Palace17.5
Manchester City92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 99%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Crystal Palace62.5
Manchester City92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 99%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Crystal Palace52.5
Manchester City57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Crystal Palace82.5
Manchester City2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Crystal Palace35
Manchester City97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Crystal Palace38.1
Manchester City72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 99%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Crystal Palace31 matchesManchester City31 matches
1.16 goals/matchGoals scored31/31▲2.29 goals/match
1.74 goals/matchGoals allowed31/31▲1 goals/match
1.16 xG/matchExpected goals31/31▲2.06 xG/match
11.3 shots/matchShots31/31▲18 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target31/30▲7.07 shots/match
41.3%Possession31/31●65.8%
4.71 corners/matchCorners31/31●7.65 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.2 fouls/matchFouls31/318.03 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Crystal Palace15 matchesManchester City15 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored15/15▲2.2 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed15/15▲1.2 goals/match
1.33 xG/matchExpected goals15/15▲2.17 xG/match
12.5 shots/matchShots15/15▲18.5 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target15/15▲8.27 shots/match
43.7%Possession15/15●64.5%
5.6 corners/matchCorners15/15●7.4 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.5 fouls/matchFouls15/157.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/12.68 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples31 / 31home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 6 Apr 2024, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsCrystal PalaceManchester City
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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